Why waiting 3-5yrs for Lithium prices is wrong

[BoldAdventure]

$3789.92 added up - includes wires, lugs, I bought a crimper, some wood and new converter. I had solar already and an inverter. So not included in my price.



PS: Tesla isn't building prismatic battery cells for your RV.

http://www.techinsider.io/facts-abou...actory-2015-11
https://www.teslamotors.com/gigafactory

[NWGetaways]

It's awesome that people like you are pushing the state of the art in off grid systems. We all benefit, like F1 racing advances that eventually dribble down to Toyota Corollas.

[dznf0g]

Why waiting 3-5yrs for Lithium prices is wrong....or

There are other reasons to wait.....

1) today I never boondock more than 3 days or so at a time. Lead acid is fine for that.
2) my weights are fine for now.
3) I plan to boondock more frequently and for longer after retirement....but a lot of things can happen in that 3 - 5 years before then. Newer technologies, health concerns preventing heavy boondocking,....heck, the trailer could be totaled befroe then, God forbid.

AND...if the price goes down by then, all the better.

[BoldAdventure]

Originally Posted by dznf0g

Why waiting 3-5yrs for Lithium prices is wrong....or

There are other reasons to wait.....

1) today I never boondock more than 3 days or so at a time. Lead acid is fine for that.
2) my weights are fine for now.
3) I plan to boondock more frequently and for longer after retirement....but a lot of things can happen in that 3 - 5 years before then. Newer technologies, health concerns preventing heavy boondocking,....heck, the trailer could be totaled befroe then, God forbid.

AND...if the price goes down by then, all the better.

Well this was a reply I was going to write in a thread to someone who directly posted

"We are considering lithiums but I'm waiting 3-5yrs to see if prices come down."

I can't find the thread now, but I wanted to post it as a separate thread rather than have it get buried. I've seen the statement repeated around here.

Was not about countering the reasons you listed. Those are good reasons. It's just in terms to when people say they are waiting to see if prices come down and then they'll buy. I think it's worth considering now as opposed to hoping the prices come down in a couple years.


Not the only one to say this, since I've been told I'm wrong in this thread (post #35), maybe Lew's opinion is higher:

Originally Posted by lewster

Ain't it the truth!!!!! Only problem with waiting for 'prices to come down' or 'if this is available now, I'll just wait until the next improvement is available' usually means that one misses the boat entirely.

For example, I've been asked when I think lithium battery prices will drop. After reading a report from China about the biggest manufacturers there........seems that most are still operating at a loss! No price drops in the forseeable future.


Lew Farber
RVIA/RVDA Nationally Certified Master Tech
ABYC Certified Master Marine Electrician
Master Tech Energy Systems, Inc.
AM Solar Certified Installation Center*AMS Lithium Batteries
Lifeline AGM Batteries**Magnum Inverters
541-490-6357

If you consider what I spent and AMSolar's kit, prices from competitors are even similar, even if you DIY. It's a great time to buy lithiums if they meet your needs. If not, don't buy them. Simple. Just don't see big price drops coming.

[dznf0g]

Originally Posted by BoldAdventure

Well this was a reply I was going to write in a thread to someone who directly posted

"We are considering lithiums but I'm waiting 3-5yrs to see if prices come down."

I can't find the thread now, but I wanted to post it as a separate thread rather than have it get buried. I've seen the statement repeated around here.

Was not about countering the reasons you listed. Those are good reasons. It's just in terms to when people say they are waiting to see if prices come down and then they'll buy.

Not the only one to say this:

Not to mention that lithium is a "relatively" scarce substance, and IIRC the largest deposits are in not too terribly stable places on the planet, politically speaking.

[MacPDX]

I guess I'm also missing the point of the thread BoldAdventure. You have already installed a Lithium system, so who are you trying to convince. I see a few cases:

1. I am going to go Lithium, but feel that it is new technology and as the demand increases, the price should come down, so I will wait to save money.
2. I am going Lithium, but don't have the money right now (or don't want to spend it). If the price comes down great, but I am waiting until (pick an event) happens.
3. Lithium would be nice, but not for X. If the price fell to Y, then I would jump on it.
4. What's a Lithium?

How many people are really in category #1?

As to the price changing or not changing, it applies to all of the components, not just the batteries. Unless the laws of Supply and Demand have been suspended, or BoldAdventure is shorting the market, the price will fluctuate based on a number of factors, including demand and advancements in technology. Who knows, maybe the government will step in an give subsidies to Lithium battery manufacturers.

[MacPDX]

Also, for those who believe the price will drop, you are not alone:

"New research suggests that the price of lithium-ion batteries could fall dramatically by 2020, creating conditions for the widespread adoption of electrified vehicles in some markets."

http://www.mckinsey.com/business-fun...-charges-ahead

This link shows a downward price trend over 2015:

http://www.energytrend.com/battery-price.html

[J. Morgan]

That is a fairly substantial initial investment.

It would buy a nice generator, a lot of gas to run it, and a few lead acid batteries too.

You know for a lot of folks that would be a good investment so long as system and battery failures did not consume a lot of money on upkeep.

For you and your use I can see this being worth the risk, for me, and others, this would really be not much more than an expensive toy that would never reach a practical point of economic return.

I respect you for putting this out there Bold, it gives everyone a lot to think about.


Talis gentium ceciderunt.

[SuperTrouper]

Hey Bold, put a grommet on that punch out in the appliance at the bottom of your picture. Your makin me nervous! 😃🎆🔥


Sent from my iPhone using Airstream Forums

[alano]

Haha, it's well know that Bold doesn't like grommets!

[sgschwend]

You can find my cost listed in the material list I posted in the my Li-ion thread.

I did a quick total and it come to $872. My setup is a DIY, I even picked up the battery when I visited the seller (hence this is what I paid, all be it optimistic). The solution provide 2.2kWhr of energy. That would be equal to 400 AH of usable lead acid battery power. 40 lbs. for the lithium battery versus 300 lbs for the lead acid battery.

If you are handy you could follow the instructions I have posted and will complete shortly. You can purchase all the parts online from the three sources I posted with the material list. As to cost I think you can see this solution is competitive.

[alano]

Originally Posted by sgschwend

YThe solution provides 2.2kWhr of energy. That would be equal to 400 AH of usable lead acid battery power.

Steve, if your solution provides 2.2 kWhr of usable energy, then that equals 2200 WHr / 12 V = 183 AHr of usable capacity. This would be equivalent to 186 * 2 = 372 AHr of total battery capacity for a flooded or AGM battery.

[BoldAdventure]

Yea, Alano is right because my system is 4.8kWhr's and is 400 amp hours.

[sgschwend]

I understand your point, let me explain the difference in our calculation. I am using a Li-NMC battery voltage range of 10.5-12.5 volts resulting in an average of 11.5 volts. In conversation folks use 12VDC as a short hand for the voltage of a lead acid batteries. When I factor in the average voltage the calculation becomes 200AH.

BoldAdventure uses a different battery chemistry and therefore will have a different average voltage, and if remember correctly pretty close to 12V, just like a lead acid battery. Assuming room temperature and an average discharge rate of 10 amps.

[ghaynes755]

The cells (GBS) that I use from Elite Power solutions are a nominal 12.8v and on my systems monitors I typically see 13.3v with little drop off. This aligns to the discharge curves that are on the Elite website.

[lewster]

The SinoPoly cells that we use are also 12.8 nominal but read 13.5VDC. We re-bulk them at 13.3.

As with most other LiPo arrangements, voltage drop in minimal under heavy draws like
a microwave or A/C unit.


Lew Farber
RVIA/RVDA Nationally Certified Master Tech
ABYC Certified Master Marine Electrician
Master Tech Energy Systems, Inc.
AM Solar Certified Installation Center*AMS Lithium Batteries
Lifeline AGM Batteries**Magnum Inverters
541-490-6357

[martin300662]

Originally Posted by MacPDX

Also, for those who believe the price will drop, you are not alone:

"New research suggests that the price of lithium-ion batteries could fall dramatically by 2020, creating conditions for the widespread adoption of electrified vehicles in some markets."

http://www.mckinsey.com/business-fun...-charges-ahead

This link shows a downward price trend over 2015:

http://www.energytrend.com/battery-price.html

As one of those who have written that I am waiting for the price of lithium-ion batteries come down, the McKinsey report just about says it all.

I'm not expecting the cost (including implementation) to drop to that of AGM but certainly the price will fall by more than the cost of buying a couple of wet cells now, to be replaced in a couple of years. Hopefully in that time they will also come out with a formulation that can be charged under 40C as well so I don't have to relocate them inside the motorhome.

I think what you guys have done is great, and if it wasn't for the early adopters, demand would not be generated to bring about the economies for scale.

All new technology goes through the Ganter Hype Cycle and too often I have jumped too early, not this time.

[BoldAdventure]

That McKinsey report was written in 2012. Guess how many years ago that was.

Also, the entire report was about automotive batteries. I even linked to where you can read Tesla's on goals with their factory. But hey, you keep wishing. I only said the next 3-5 yrs. I bet they might be cheaper in 5-10 maybe.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I dunno. I'm taking a bearish position on this. You can be bullish.