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Old 01-14-2016, 01:25 PM   #1
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Source for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

Hi Everyone,

We are considering a trailer in the midwest and would be towing our trailer up as a trade-in and towing the new unit home in the near future. I'll have to plan the travel based mostly on weather and would like to avoid snow along the route.

What do you use for medium range (4-6 weeks out) weather forecasts to plan travel?

I recognize that there are better times to make this trip, but the trailer I want to look at won't be there then.

Thanks,

Al
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Old 01-14-2016, 01:29 PM   #2
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Hmmm....if I want anything further out then a week or so, I google that town and long range weather forecast.

I can't remember what provides it, but something comes up.

If you come up from the south, on major highways, you will have plenty of advance notice of a storm.

Don't know how far north you are coming, but January and February are usually brutal in Illinois, Iowa and points north of that.

Good luck, and see you soon.


Maggie
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Old 01-14-2016, 01:36 PM   #3
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I have used Accuweather.com for quite a few years. They are as accurate as can be in their 45 day forecasts. Gets more accurate the nearer current day. Pretty good for choosing alternate routes, or hunkering down, or making long day runs to get away from impending weather.

Good phone app too.
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Old 01-14-2016, 03:12 PM   #4
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Sounds interesting Al and Missy.

Ditto to Rich about AccuWeather being good for their predictions, and especially for updating the forecasts as the current weather data fine-tunes their models.

Not sure about your exact destination, but here are their general forecast maps for Kansas City for several time periods:

United States Temperature, Rain and Snow Maps - AccuWeather.com

Here is a monthly temp. forecast for January, by the day:

Kansas City January Weather 2016 - AccuWeather Forecast for KS 66101

Note especially the line graphs at the bottom showing the historical high/low temps, with the current temps overlaid.

At the top right you can go to February's forecasts, and in a couple of weeks they will also have March predictions available.

When you get closer to leaving, you can start looking at the radar maps, including local ones for your next way point, by starting with the national map. As you hover your mouse cursor over an area, you can zoom in to various regional and local radar maps (as the grey-bordered Zoom In boxes appear).

United States Doppler Weather Radar Map - AccuWeather.com

When you hit Play at the top right, you will see the radar for the last hour or two, up until about 15-20 minutes ago. Looking to the west usually affords some lead time of a day or two to catch precipitation moving your way. Blue is snow and green is rain, etc.. The regional and local maps work the same in the Play mode.

PS -- Not sure if you followed Tom's recent thread for his Montana to Florida trip, but here's hoping that the trip is going out well, as his arrival in Florida was scheduled for the 24th of this month:

http://www.airforums.com/forums/f42/...da-144951.html

If you would like to provide more information about your destination and ETA for leaving, I would be happy to check out the forecasts as your get closer to leaving. Have fun and good luck with checking out the new unit!

Peter
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Old 01-14-2016, 03:18 PM   #5
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Accuweather or aviation weather forecast ...
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Old 01-14-2016, 03:23 PM   #6
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That far out all you can get are forecast based on past trends. Mother Nature has a way of proving long range forecasters wrong. Best you can do is go to the NOA web site, that is where all the other weather services get their information.
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Old 01-14-2016, 03:28 PM   #7
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That far out all you can get are forecast based on past trends. Mother Nature has a way of proving long range forecasters wrong. Best you can do is go to the NOA web site, that is where all the other weather services get their information.
The AccuWeather forecast maps actually update their long-range forecasts quite well from day-to-day, as the current weather allows them to fine-tune their predictive models. Thus the limitations of the old methods of long-range forecasts, to which you refer Michael, are more of an historical anachronism IMO.

The links I posted recently will bear this out if you keep checking them over the next few weeks, I think you will find.

Peter
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Old 01-15-2016, 04:08 PM   #8
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One thing I find useful to determine how confident the weekly forecasters are is to go to National Weather Service, enter in the location and then scroll down to near the bottom and select "Forecast Discussion". Here is where you will learn if all of the models point in one direction or if the forecast is more nebulous than usual. They give a "long range" forecast of about a week.
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Old 01-15-2016, 05:22 PM   #9
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Triple (quadruple?) ditto on Accuweather.
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Old 01-15-2016, 05:26 PM   #10
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Thanks everyone! I stumbled onto Accuweather and that is what I am using. Trying to go to Ohio, towing up and back. I'd like to avoid salt on the roads if possible.

Al
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Old 01-16-2016, 12:13 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Al and Missy View Post
Thanks everyone! I stumbled onto Accuweather and that is what I am using. Trying to go to Ohio, towing up and back. I'd like to avoid salt on the roads if possible.

Al
When are you thinking of leaving? Avoiding salt this time of year is unlikely IMO. The best way to deal with it is a thorough hosing when back home, including the undercarriages of tow vehicle and trailer.
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Old 01-18-2016, 03:45 PM   #12
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Al, did you check out the Farmer's Almanac. Something like 100 years of accuracy and I've seen claims they are more accurate than some of the most scientific weather services.
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Old 01-19-2016, 07:48 AM   #13
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Anything over 7 to 10 days is very unreliable. Many times have seen them so wrong so be very careful.
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Old 01-19-2016, 08:51 AM   #14
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Plenty of salt on our roads right now - predicting snow this week.
We haven't had much bad weather near Cincinnati yet this year. The road departments have plenty of salt to burn up so at the slightest hint of a snow flake flying the salt trucks are out in force.
The best you could hope for until the end of february is a very cold dry spell or go through right after a rain storm when the salt has been washed off the roads.
If you have to get into the salt there are road salt neutralizing products sold - search the net - there are several.
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