Hurricane Matthew

[OTRA15]

For measuring the storm surge, I could not find many relevant tide stations. This Station DMFS1 at Dames Point in the Jacksonville estuary of the St. John's River is running about 1-2 feet above normal (red line), with high tide expected at 2 AM or so:

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sta...tml?id=8720219

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=dmsf1

As Matthew approaches from the south, the easterly winds at the top of the storm should have a clear effect on the water levels at this tide station, throughout the night.

All you night birds can check and report in! Running out of steam here.

[Caffeinated]

National news is reporting sustained winds of 130-140mph.

Mike

[rmkrum]

Only near the eye, I bet. Friction over land and distance from the eye makes a big difference. They love the drama. Look for winds reported from unbiased observers on the ground, like airports, etc. Don't fall for the television weather person's hype.


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[HiHoAgRV]

I saw some detailed wind map projections today. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the projected path does keep the Cat1 and 2 winds very isolated to a small inland path.

Only a very small area was shown as Cat 2 on shore.

[OTRA15]

Originally Posted by HiHoAgRV

I saw some detailed wind map projections today. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the projected path does keep the Cat1 and 2 winds very isolated to a small inland path.

Only a very small area was shown as Cat 2 on shore.

So far even those lower inland estimates seem high IMO. The news reports of higher winds come from Haiti and the southern and eastern Bahamas IMO, which did get hit very hard, with the loss of many lives, sad to say.

[OTRA15]

As of this hour [4 AM EDT], the eye appears to have stayed offshore a bit, and is still Southwest of Cape Canaveral, as best as I can tell from the radar:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/flo...r-radar?play=1

The strongest wind bands north of the eye look like they are hitting Daytona Beach right now.

Here are some broad-brush updates, moving up the coast, of the highest wind/gusts reported in the last ~6 hours:

77 -- SPGF1 West of Freeport Bahams [went offline at 7 PM last night]
48 -- Palm Beach airport [no reports since 9 PM last night]
46 -- Sebastian Inlet SP SIPF1[went offline at 1 AM]
48 -- Trident Pier near Cape Canaveral [still online]
58 -- Buoy 49001 20 NM east of Cape Canaveral [still online]
51 -- Daytona Beach Airport [still online]
48 -- St. Augustine SAUF1 south of Jacksonville [still online]
30 -- Jacksonville Airport [still online]

[The links for each of these locations have been given in earlier posts.]

The Dames Point Jacksonville tide station's recent high tide was about 1' above normal. The next high tide is at about 2:30 this afternoon.

[OTRA15]

PS -- Ran out of edit time before --

The Dames Point Jacksonville tide station's recent high tide was about 1' above normal. The next high tide is around 2:30 PM EDT this afternoon, which is about the earliest time when the eye is expected to be this far north [and perhaps as late as 8 PM tonight].

Hope everyone is safe and sound, and that the damage to life and limb [and aluminum!] has been minimal.

Cheers,

Peter

PS -- This wind/gust/air pressure chart for Buoy 41009 [20 NM east of Cape Canaveral] should get interesting in the next couple of hours:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT

Home page for 41009:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

[OTRA15]

Important correction to Post #86 -- sorry, too early in the morning and limited edit time! --

The eye was Southeast of Cape Canaveral.

Also the Weather Channel has started apologizing for what appears to have been an inflated forecast by the NWS.

[xrvr]

So far appears to be staying off shore, good news. Just started getting rain a light winds here in Gainesville. Wind prediction appears to be lowering, still very dangerous along the coast. I see a band od heavy rain heading our way. Don't get caught on the coast, please.

[OTRA15]

The 6 AM NWS update puts the maximum sustained winds for Matthew at 120 MPH, with a recent wind gust at Cape Canaveral of 100 MPH. Heading NNW at a bearing of 330 at 14 MPH, which will probably bring the eye close to the coast at Daytona and Jacksonville IMO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/071002.shtml

Buoy 41009 off CC appears to have gone offline at 4:20 AM, perhaps due to wind/wave damage, which is a common occurrence for buoys in the middle of the action. Earlier today it reported a wave height of 29.9 feet! Check out the chart:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

[skitique]

Originally Posted by SeaLevel

So far things aren't as bad here in Jupiter as we thought it might be earlier. The Treasure Coast isn't out of the woods yet though. Once the sun comes up I will be heading over to check the trailer.

Sea Level - I hope you & your family are okay. Let us know when you get a chance.

Jane

[tevake]

So far the fortunate offshore path is saving the coastal strip the worst of the near the eye most intense conditions.
What a difference 30/40 miles can make.

The media is sharing the worst case potential, it is their job to help avoid the worse outcome. Oh and to stir up drama.
The impact would have been very different if the eye had tracked right up the coast.
While it is a blessing that the center of this storm so far is just offshore, let's hope it stays that way on its trip north.

I grew up in the Melbourne area, so the worst is past for my friends there, whew!

Wishing the best for those farther north!

Cheers Richard

[FCStreamer]

It looks like Matthew stayed far enough offshore and missed us. No damage reported, only dirt and debris from the wind. We're planning on heading over tonight to inspect and clean up.

[OTRA15]

However, tevake, the eye is in the perfect position to cause the massive 6' to 9' storm surge they were predicting for certain areas, and in my personal opinion the surge will not be close to that anywhere.

The Dames Point Jacksonville tide station should give us a good reading at high tide at 3 or so. [link in earlier post] This station is inland about 4 miles directly west on the St. John's River, so any ocean tidal surge should translate well here.

The scale of the "miss" by the forecasters is yet to be determined, but I hope accurate reporting will cover the cost of having millions (?) of folks evacuate and take shelter.

If the forecasting miss is significant, maybe The Weather Channel will learn some lessons also, but not likely as screen views/hours watched is their main metric. Watching their people up on the dunes saying that the tidal surge could hit them at waist level is gonna look pretty melodramatic when the probable minimal damage is assessed in certain areas especially south of Cape Canaveral IMO.

Will check out stations for tidal surge up the coast further also.

Good to hear reports of minimal damage!

[xrvr]

They fooled us again. Too little facts, too much drama.c

[rmkrum]

West Palm Beach just south of the airport, mom confirms sleeping through 50 mph winds and rain, never lost power.

However, staying boarded up because of the possibility of Matthew looping back by Wednesday.

Her biggest issue was trying to house train two new puppies in the bad weather. (Sigh).


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[SeaLevel]

Originally Posted by skitique

Sea Level - I hope you & your family are okay. Let us know when you get a chance.

Jane

All is well! Thanks for asking. No damage to the Airstream, and we just have some cleanup of small tree branches around the house yet to do. We dodged a bullet. At this point I'm glad we didn't leave, but we had considered towing the trailer over to one of the state parks on the gulf coast for a couple of days.

[Beach Bum]

We live in ponce inlet near Daytona winds were around 100-105 Max. We lost power some time between 7-830.

We evacuated to my sister in-laws near Ocala not much here other than lots of rain and some wind gusts. They lost power at 9 today. Doo our AS

[Lily&Me]

Take care everyone, it's not over yet, and thanks for checking in here to let us know you are okay.


Maggie

[Beach Bum]

Fat fingers sent too soon. Our AS with solar and lithium batteries is now providing all lifes essential refridge and charging for our nices electronic and cell phone. 😁 We plan to go back tomorrow to the beach see what happened. It's all good we and are family are safe the rest is just stuff. Hope everyone else in its path is safe