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Old 10-04-2016, 08:06 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by avionstream View Post
NC may get blasted, stay informed.
Thanks, we will, but we will be in the mountains in the NW corner, about 20 miles from TN and 20 miles from VA.

We may get some rain, but probably not much else.

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Old 10-04-2016, 08:12 PM   #16
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Good luck everyone. Stay safe and run ahead of the forecasts. Way better safe than sorry!
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Old 10-04-2016, 09:55 PM   #17
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We heard from our youngest son and his family who live over in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. They are about a quarter mile from the ocean just north of St. Augustine. They plan to evacuate tomorrow and come over here to the Panhandle. We encouraged them to do. Even if the storm doesn't hit that bad over there, we would rather see them here. As they will have the Hooligans (their two little boys) with them, we are frantically getting ready tonight.

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Old 10-04-2016, 09:58 PM   #18
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Having lived in Florida through some of the worst hurricanes, I would be heading a safe distance inland. West Texas sounds about right to me. Can't have enough distance between me and a hurricane.

That said, my dear mom, who will never evacuate, lives near the Florida east coast. Our childhood home is built like a bunker, and she is probably safe there, but I still worry.


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Old 10-05-2016, 02:41 AM   #19
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Sure enough, up north the western-most white line referred to in Post #14 has moved east a bit, and is now over the "A" in "VA", with the "H" center location for Sunday at 8 PM being well out in the ocean. The projected cone for the path is now entirely south of Long Island NY.

Down south, the Florida track appears to have moved west/inland a bit overnight, with the western-most white line, for the projected cone for the center of the storm, now being over Crystal River, west of Leesburg. The center of Matthew is forecast to track up the coast just east of Daytona Beach, then to St. Augustine and Jacksonville, before turning NE to go over Cape Hatteras.

The storm has been downgraded overnight to a Category 3, and further lessening is expected, as shown by this projection for the probability of Hurricane Force Winds through Sunday night:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...d120#wcontents

Stay safe.
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Old 10-05-2016, 05:30 AM   #20
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The 5 AM EDT update to the forecasts has Matthew's projected path near Florida shifting east again, and then heading directly east to Bermuda as it approaches Cape Hatteras.



It will be interesting to hear what the meteorologists have to say today, as to what factors caused these recent changes to the forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap....shtml?5-daynl

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...d120#wcontents
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Old 10-05-2016, 06:13 AM   #21
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Thanks for the updates. It is looking better for some of us.
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Old 10-05-2016, 07:18 AM   #22
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Thankfully my trailer is safely out of the storms path, but my boat is in a marina at Ft. Pierce, FL. It is definitely not out of the cone. I had my maintenance guys yesterday doubling and adding lines and large fenders. Loose materials moved to the cabin. All I can do now is hope that it survives.
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Old 10-05-2016, 07:24 AM   #23
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Sounds like it is veering away from Florida, per the Today show just now.


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Old 10-05-2016, 08:15 AM   #24
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Thanks, Maggie.

If you are interested in an in depth analysis of storm dynamics click on this link.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Then scroll down to click on the video.
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Old 10-05-2016, 09:06 AM   #25
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Well isn't this just perfect timing..... %$^& hurricane!!
We are leaving on Thursday for Orlando. We need to arrive by Monday Oct. 10th stay till Thursday and heading to Skidaway Island SP. Need to stay flexible.....
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Old 10-05-2016, 09:09 AM   #26
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Yep, and you might rethink that, tho by the 10th it may be over...but for downed trees, power outages, etc.


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Old 10-05-2016, 10:11 AM   #27
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Well isn't this just perfect timing..... %$^& hurricane!!
We are leaving on Thursday for Orlando. We need to arrive by Monday Oct. 10th stay till Thursday and heading to Skidaway Island SP. Need to stay flexible.....
Not sure what your intended route was, but if you head out for Nashville and Birmingham AL for the first two nights on the road, you should be out of harm's way in my opinion. Then by Saturday, you will have a better sense of which route to take and the timing.

Knoxville -- Chattanooga -- Atlanta would be a little shorter maybe, but possibly closer to Matthew if the storm tracks more westward.

Going over the Appalachians via Asheville might be a problem . . .

Orlando by Monday afternoon should be no prob, again IMO, although Maggie raises a good point about the condition of roads etc. as you approach Orlando.

Have fun!

Peter

PS -- The links in Post #3 permit you to monitor the storm while you are on the road, without needing television.
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Old 10-05-2016, 10:23 AM   #28
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Take these hurricane path directions with a grain of saltwater. I remember Hurricane Andrew was predicted to make landfall in Jacksonville, FL. We were fishing in the Florida Keys when we found out that it was taking a left turn and heading for south Miami and the Florida Keys. Lived through too many of these to trust the talking heads.
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