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Old 11-30-2009, 11:04 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by bizcamp View Post
There is a certain group that thinks that the dollar is about to go up as the "shorts" cover and the world looks to a safe haven...
The dollar is historically low and "everyone thinks the dollar will keep going down."
This is a good time to think about the reasons for the dollar to go up...
Be a leader not a follower, its harder to get run over if you are out in front!

The price point is not figured yet, the prototype is being commercialized.
My feel is that they can do it for the same cost of current combustion based transportation, in other words...same price...
1-2 years out for delivery and 12 years for complete penetration of the market... This means the same percentage ownership as today vs collectors and people that can't afford brand new.

This is an economical revolution that is based on the environment winning, the owner of a car can now have a low to no cost mode of transport (winner) and the affordability of oil for all mobile transport will go down(winner)...more on that later if you are interested...This is a win for all with a payback for all that participate.
Nothing this big changes unless everyone is a winner....
If the economics are there then it is a done deal....thats my bet, done deal.

As for plenty of buyers for $3 gas, ok, how many more buyers can afford $1 gas? More methinks...
This is not a matter of looking at the past history of oil and the producers and thinking it will repeat...sooner or later the change will come...specially if trillions is at stake...get a piece of it!

Rev It Up,
Bizcamp
The quote "affordability of oil will go down (winner)" should be price of oil will go down!
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Old 12-02-2009, 05:36 PM   #100
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Bob Lutz comments at LA auto show tonight (from Autoblog)

11:55 - "The auto industry can no longer rely on oil for 98% of its power."
11:56 - GM's working to get China off petroleum.
...
12:09 - Lutz says we're going to look back at this moment as the "tipping point" for electric vehicles and it will prove to be as momentous as the transition from horse and buddy buggy to cars.
...
12:20 - The way to electrify the infrastructure is ("sadly") a federal tax on fuel. Cheap gas means fewer electric cars.

Betcha Mullaly and Sergio (Ford and Fiat/Chrysler) have a very similar speech available.
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Old 12-03-2009, 10:03 AM   #101
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Greater efficiency solves all problems....

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedSHED View Post
Bob Lutz comments at LA auto show tonight (from Autoblog)

11:55 - "The auto industry can no longer rely on oil for 98% of its power."
11:56 - GM's working to get China off petroleum.
...
12:09 - Lutz says we're going to look back at this moment as the "tipping point" for electric vehicles and it will prove to be as momentous as the transition from horse and buddy buggy to cars.
...
12:20 - The way to electrify the infrastructure is ("sadly") a federal tax on fuel. Cheap gas means fewer electric cars.

Betcha Mullaly and Sergio (Ford and Fiat/Chrysler) have a very similar speech available.
The new Capstone Supercar powerplant will obviate the need to change the infrastructure, extend our need for oil for cars by a factor of five and this will allow China to have all the cars they want without pollution or rise in price of oil... No need for taxes if you don't have to change anything, eh?

Lutz sees the future and it is Microturbines....

Breathing easier,
Bizcamp
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Old 12-30-2009, 09:12 AM   #102
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Dollar update:

Anyone notice that the USD has appreciated since our last note?

Gotta Play to Pay....

Take the money and put it into a new Airstream?

Money for nothin....
Bizcamp
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Old 12-30-2009, 12:00 PM   #103
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Valero, the largest US refiner, just shut down a refinery in Delaware. Several other refineries have been shut down recently as we now have more fuel capacity in the US than demand. Quite change from 2 years ago.

"Experts" are predicting we will never again see gas and diesel demands to be what it was before the Great Recession. Closing refineries keeps prices up, but refining is not very profitable and that's why all the large oil companies have sold their refineries to companies like Valero recently.

There's also an oversupply of ethanol now as many companies build ethanol refineries thinking they would cash in. The frenzy resulted in too many refineries for demand. Ethanol is priced artificially low because of politics, tax breaks and import restrictions.

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Old 01-04-2010, 07:28 AM   #104
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Gotta love the "Experts"!

Quote:
Originally Posted by CrawfordGene View Post
Valero, the largest US refiner, just shut down a refinery in Delaware. Several other refineries have been shut down recently as we now have more fuel capacity in the US than demand. Quite change from 2 years ago.

"Experts" are predicting we will never again see gas and diesel demands to be what it was before the Great Recession. Closing refineries keeps prices up, but refining is not very profitable and that's why all the large oil companies have sold their refineries to companies like Valero recently.

There's also an oversupply of ethanol now as many companies build ethanol refineries thinking they would cash in. The frenzy resulted in too many refineries for demand. Ethanol is priced artificially low because of politics, tax breaks and import restrictions.

Gene
The "Experts" are wrong again...we will see consumption higher than the last peak...that is the nature of progress and the history of oil. More using more but the difference will be that supply will meet demand through the wonder of technology and efficiency. Find more oil, cheaper and burn more, more cleanly and you have the formula that has always worked in the past, working into the future
PS: Ethanol was such a boondoggle from the very beginning...so wrong on so many levels that it is doomed to fail ...
We are just starting to see the damage this ethanol experiment is wreaking on combustion engines...this stuff is bad, why do you think they won't pipelline the stuff? The only way to transport is stainless steel, now that would be a costly pipeline, eh? Fuel instead of Food, now that's genius, eh?
You can get more fuel out of the Biomass leftover from corn production than using the corn itself...where was that thought about?
Go Figure,
Bizcamp
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Old 03-09-2010, 09:21 AM   #105
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Since our last update oil has moved from the low 70s to the mid 80s. The dollar has appreciated nicely....Did you take advantage of the opportunity?
America is back and the "calls" are on track...
Next up to the podium is the "new" solution for the combustion/electric hybrid transportation powerplant...
Stay tuned for the second coming of the automobile...
The golden age of daytrippin is now in our grasp!
Bizcamp
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Old 03-11-2010, 08:41 AM   #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bizcamp View Post
The "Experts" are wrong again...we will see consumption higher than the last peak...that is the nature of progress and the history of oil. More using more but the difference will be that supply will meet demand through the wonder of technology and efficiency. Find more oil, cheaper and burn more, more cleanly and you have the formula that has always worked in the past, working into the future
PS: Ethanol was such a boondoggle from the very beginning...so wrong on so many levels that it is doomed to fail ...
We are just starting to see the damage this ethanol experiment is wreaking on combustion engines...this stuff is bad, why do you think they won't pipelline the stuff? The only way to transport is stainless steel, now that would be a costly pipeline, eh? Fuel instead of Food, now that's genius, eh?
You can get more fuel out of the Biomass leftover from corn production than using the corn itself...where was that thought about?
Go Figure,
Bizcamp
IOA just upped the consumption estimates going forward for oil up 900,000 bbl per day for the next 12 months...
Here we go!

More consumption, not less...
Whoop, there it is...
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Old 06-03-2010, 08:43 AM   #107
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Update, RV Industry and year ago price prediction...

Quote:
Originally Posted by bizcamp View Post
The recent high (over $4/gal.) and credit crunch from the mortgage industry have coincided to slapdown RVing temporarily. Look at the stock price comeback in Winnebago Industries in the last few days...
Credit is coming back to the market and gas is coming down...
We should be in the $90-$60/bbl which should be $2.25/gal. equivalent soon...
If you need a good price on a TV or RV go get'em now!

Don't worry about the price of gas long term just buy the oil companies or the DIG ETF and that should hedge the price you pay long term.

Be Smart,
BIZCAMP
The above quote is from 8/09:

Currently oil is at $73bbl. Up five dollars from pre-BP accident. Ok, so 68-73 is at the low end of my estimates...lower is better for your pocketbook and the naysayers about $200bbl oil ain't saying no more, eh!

How about the 40% increase in RV sales in the industry? Did you buy 'em when they were givin'em away?

P.S. Price of gas at the pump 2.52! Not 4.

You gotta pay to play!
Have a good day,
I've said all I can say,
Today!

Bizcamp
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Old 06-03-2010, 08:54 AM   #108
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Bizcamp, what is your advice to those of us who are considering buying a new Airstream this year?
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Old 06-03-2010, 08:59 AM   #109
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US Dollar/Economy update:

Quote:
Originally Posted by bizcamp View Post
Dollar update:

Anyone notice that the USD has appreciated since our last note?

Gotta Play to Pay....

Take the money and put it into a new Airstream?

Money for nothin....
Bizcamp
Dollar is back, up 12% since Oct. 09.
The talk about America in decline was just another ignorant agenda ploy.
Hear any more talk about The Euro being the answer to the dollar...yeah, right! Ok, it's lesson time....

You gotta know what you know but,
It's more important to know what you don't know!
It's the ignorance that kills!

Kill Ignorance!

What do I know?

Bizcamp
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Old 06-03-2010, 09:13 AM   #110
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Gold is old (school)

Here's the next tidbit....

If you are one of those "new" owners of Gold...
You bot it because the ads on TV educated you to the "opportunity."
Or you think that the US has got too much debt, or that "inflation" is going to come roaring back in the next few years...

Get real, you are about to get your head handed to you.

Gold is at 1215.80 an ounce, pretty near the all time high, right?

Bet you all think it's going to $2000 an ounce!
Cause that's what the "experts" have said.

Think twice about shortcutting what "you don't know" by listening to these jokers, instead of doing your homework.

Can you say "going down?"

I'm golden,
Bizcamp
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Old 06-03-2010, 09:55 AM   #111
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The Price Is Right!

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Bizcamp, what is your advice to those of us who are considering buying a new Airstream this year?
Buy gently used. This seems to be in the 2-5 year timeframe.

Save biggest piece of price depreciation, a good chunk of that is the first year diff. in price due to maufacturer profit, dealer markup, gewgaw add ons premiums, delivery/prep costs, taxes on full retail price.

These will add up to 40-50% typically.

It's nice to buy at half price, eh?

Here's how my transaction went: 2006 Basecamp, 29-30k all in new.
I purchased 2 years out, it was used maybe twice. In pristine condition,
15.6k out the door.

Percent saved... Over 50%!

Do your homework, know what you want, put the word out, be patient, nail that bad-boy!

Fight the urge to buy it "right now."
Buy it when it's right!

How now?
Bizcamp
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Old 07-02-2010, 06:37 PM   #112
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Why did gold drop $35 an ounce yesterday?
Where did that money go?
Wink, wink!

Golden opportunity,
BizCamp
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