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Old 12-06-2006, 07:34 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Silvertwinkie
I agree, life isn't safe. Saftey isn't an illusion though.

I'm not saying here that the sky is falling or that one should stop living, but I can't also subscribe to the fact that there can be things done that increase the odds of something happening. Traveling to the Middle East would in fact be one of those events IMHO. I'm not looking for agreement, I'm simply voicing my opinion and concerns. I may be way off base....but maybe I'm not.
Eric, while it's true that there are places in the world that are in disarray, Afghanistan and Iraq among them, I seriously doubt if you're personally in any significantly greater danger in Cairo or Capetown as an individual than you are in Chicago...

Looking at this chart and trying to assess risk the same way, I'd have to say you'd be nuts to want to visit Chicago, much less live there. How would the State Department rate travelling in Chicago or any of our other cities? We know that the reality is much different though...

Risk can be assessed, and you're right that it should be whenever possible, but the percieved 'threat' of risk in most cases is much greater than the actual risk. As long as you do what you can to educate yourself and try to limit those risks, I think you're Ok.

Roger

On edit... I should add that this chart is dated as the Chicago homicide rate has continued to decline as was the lowest in decades in '05. Still, there are almost as many homicides in Chicago in a year as there are in the entirety of England.
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Old 12-06-2006, 07:48 PM   #30
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Rog, I hear ya. Chicago, in certain areas can be just as bad or worse compared to Cairo, you are right, but numbers and charts can be made to prove just about any point. I also could dig up statistics to show the west side of the city isn't all that bad, but only taking the area around United Center and using that as my data to support my viewpoint. Additionally, 22% homicide out of the millions of residents, though worse than some, is still fairly low for a major city. I would guess Houston today would be even worse than that. Yet, I have yet to see suicide bombers, people beheaded for simply being an American in any of these places.

My sense is that even though my odds of getting shot or harmed on the west side of the city are greater than say being in Iowa, my point is that even though I don't live in Iowa, Wisconsin, Ontario, Germany, France, etc or many places in Mexico I feel my odds are better traveling to these places, than to places in the Middle East. Moreover, if you read the State Deparment info, you don't have suicide bombers either in these places I've mentioned typically, nor are there risks of running into mines in most of these places, or beheaddings for simply being an American, Brit or anyone else they see as a "Zionist" or "Invader".

Again, my personal call, without trying to impose my thoughts or will on the masses. Just sharing my thoughts about it. Others will feel totally different and that's ok. We are not supressing anyone's views here that are non-offensive.
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Old 12-06-2006, 08:01 PM   #31
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Only less than 700 in the City of Chicago, for how many millions of people. How many of those are solved? - they actually catch the criminals here.

I could only find the stats for 2001 - I'm sure it has gotten better by now (maybe NOT). BTW - these are reported deaths - there is a difference, undocumented murders in 3rd world countries can be as high as 200% more than the reported number - can't scare the tourists away, that would be bad for business.

You want graphs - I have graphs, mine are just bigger.
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Old 12-06-2006, 08:37 PM   #32
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In the NEWS....... TODAY

KHARTOUM, Sudan (Reuters) -- Hundreds of people may have been killed in the heaviest fighting between Sudan's former north-south foes since they signed a peace deal last year, a senior former rebel officer said on Thursday.
"More than hundreds have been lost. The Sudan army sustained very heavy casualties and civilians were caught in the crossfire," Elias Waya Nyipuocs, a former officer in the southern rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), told Reuters.
The fighting in the southern town of Malakal began three days ago and escalated into full trench warfare between the northern Sudanese Armed Forces and the SPLA.

MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) -- Hundreds of Ethiopian troops arrived Friday to protect Somalia's government as a powerful Islamic militia massed nearby, sending civilians fleeing and raising fears of a regional war, witnesses said.
Although tensions were high, travel is exceedingly difficult during the wet season, making serious fighting unlikely in the immediate future. Twenty years of neglect have left Somalia's roads virtually impassable in the rain.
A statement on the Islamic Courts' Web site, a Somali-language site called Qaadisiya, said Friday there will be a "third world war" between Christians and Muslims and said the Muslim world will defeat "the enemy of Islam."

N'DJAMENA, Chad (Reuters) -- Chad announced plans on Friday to send troops to help its southern neighbor Central African Republic and confront what it said was a widening regional war waged by Sudan from its violent Darfur region.
The announcement signaled an escalation of the Darfur conflict, which has increasingly been spilling an explosive mixture of refugees, rebels, militia and bandit raiders over Sudan's western borders into Chad and Central African Republic.

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) -- The United Nations food agency said Monday it has scaled down food distribution in Zimbabwe, where more than 1 million people are in critical need, because of a shortage of donor funds. It said further reductions might be necessary across southern Africa.

NAIROBI, Kenya (Reuters) -- An independent commission will demarcate the contested Ethiopian-Eritrean border on maps and leave the rival nations to establish the physical boundary themselves, a letter obtained by Reuters on Tuesday shows.
The Horn of Africa neighbors fought a 1998-2000 war over a border area of dusty villages and scrubby plains, and 70,000 people were killed. Although a 2000 agreement ended the conflict, the peace process soon ground to a halt.


You WILL have to pass through some of these countries. No way around it.
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Old 12-07-2006, 07:43 AM   #33
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Let's see. There are towns named Cairo in New York and West Virginia. Can't think where there might be one named Capetown, but perhaps a town on a cape would suit. That trip might allow the caravanners to see their next birthday.
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Old 12-07-2006, 08:03 AM   #34
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Smile This is in an attempt to inject levity into the conversation.

Disclaimer: This is in an attempt to inject levity into the conversation.

Question?

I'm wondering what the motivation is for posting pie charts, graphs and statistics is on the dangers of the Cairo to Cape Town caravan.

1. Is it to sway committed Airstream adventurers from their choice?

2. Show how much I know about the geo-political landscape?

3. Maybe they don't know it's dangerous?

4. I'm just a good Samaritan?

5. Because I'm to smart to go?

6. I'm trying to get to 1000 posts ASAP!

7. I need some excitement since the Save Wally Campaign ended!


************************************************** ****************

The scene opens with "Darling" sitting at the breakfast nook, pecking at his laptop

Darling: " Wow honey, this Cairo to Cape Town caravan sounds fabulous!"

Honey: "OK, Darling."

Darling: "Wait, wait, ah honey, I just saw a pie chart posted on the AS forum which shows Mogadishu is more dangerous than Chicago, maybe we should cancel?"

Honey: "Can we discuss this after I return from my skydiving lesson."

Darling: (lovingly) "Break a leg, honey"

************************************************** *

I've posted this because:

1. I'm trying to get to 1000 posts ASAP.

2. I need some excitement since the Save Wally campaign ended.

3. To show I'm a witty fellow.

4. There's nothing like the smell of Napalm in the morning, heck I could use a good flaming.

Michael
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Old 12-07-2006, 08:14 AM   #35
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That's pretty cute Michael....as for me, 6000 is the number, though I didn't post any charts to show my ascent.

Let's blame it on Roger...he started it.

On a serious note, I personally have little to no vested feelings if folks go or not. I just wanted to share my thoughts just in case someone was overly nostalgic and didn't think about it.
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Old 12-07-2006, 09:09 AM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silvertwinkie
That's pretty cute Michael....as for me, 6000 is the number, though I didn't post any charts to show my ascent.
Silvertwink,

6000!
see, you just reinforced my reason #1 for posting the above
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Old 12-07-2006, 04:28 PM   #37
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Maybe a little background - I lead Oceanographic surveys around the world for the Navy. At any time I can be on call to deply to far away places - some of which you may travel through on this caravan in Africa. I was on a plane THE DAY the tsunami hit Indonesia and the IO 2 years ago. It's part of my job to lead these types of ADVENTURES for the Navy and to safely deploy and return my team to these places (as many as 20 people). This process of planning an "expedition" for a large amount of equipment, personnel, medical needs, evacuation measures, shipping schedules, SECURITY - ALL OF IT are part of my job and I do it every day. So when I see a group of people that in some ways I have gotten to know jump into a "fun time" such as this I guess I like to pipe up and put out too much info.

Sorry, have fun - take lots of pictures and post them on the web for all to see.
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Old 12-07-2006, 04:55 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artlink
Silvertwink,

6000!
see, you just reinforced my reason #1 for posting the above
Got me cold on that one.
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Old 12-07-2006, 08:11 PM   #39
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85MH325, Thanks for the stats. Another very good reason to stay away from Chicago! Darol
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Old 12-07-2006, 09:22 PM   #40
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Darol, it was entirely my pleasure. <deep bow> Roger
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Old 12-08-2006, 09:23 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by Darol Ingalls
85MH325, Thanks for the stats. Another very good reason to stay away from Chicago! Darol
One less car on the roads around here....only 1.5 million more and we'll have a realy Interstate Highway System that works around here!
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Old 12-16-2006, 02:01 PM   #42
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It will be quite an adventure

I am officially signed up to go on the Cape Town to Cairo trip in 2009. All my friends and family say I am nuts and by the sounds of many of the Forum members I just may be. But there are several individuals who have been putting the plans together for this trip for several years. The announcement for the trip has just gone out in the Blue Beret. I think that they will have the trip full in a very short time. National Geographic will be on the trip as well as many major sponsors will be involved as well.
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