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Old 03-01-2018, 08:43 AM   #1
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Light Diesel Market To Grow 168% In 2018 And Another 86% In 2019

Here's an interesting bit of analysis. One guys opinion, but he's got a lot to back it up (I am sure people can find facts to back up the opposite conclusion too).

You can read the initial part of the article without login (registration and login is free) but need to log in to read the full piece, which is pretty long:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/415...6-percent-2019

Let me know if there's a problem with that link. It's the one I got after I registered.

As a diesel lover, I hope he's right, or close to being right.
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Old 03-01-2018, 08:46 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by utahredrock View Post
Here's an interesting bit of analysis. One guys opinion, but he's got a lot to back it up (I am sure people can find facts to back up the opposite conclusion too).



You can read the initial part of the article without login (registration and login is free) but need to log in to read the full piece, which is pretty long:



https://seekingalpha.com/article/415...6-percent-2019



Let me know if there's a problem with that link. It's the one I got after I registered.



As a diesel lover, I hope he's right, or close to being right.


US diesel demand has been shrinking for 2 years to in a row. I will send out a plot. ( I am an energy market analyst.)
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Old 03-01-2018, 10:47 AM   #3
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The 168% applies to what the analyst terms "personal use diesels". Just a comment that when you have a very small market, it is easy to show a large percentage change. He estimates a base line of 43,718 vehicles sold in 2017.

It is worth noting his observation that that sales volume is less than a quarter of the battery and plug in hybrid electric vehicles sold in the same time period.

For that market class, I would expect to see continued growth in battery and plug in hybrid electrics. The analysts comments that diesel "personal use vehicles" could catch electrics is if electric vehicle sales volumes remain flat, but in fact they are increasing rapidly.

I would expect diesel sales will continue strong in heavier duty applications, such as 3/4 ton pickups and vans on up.
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Old 03-04-2018, 10:07 AM   #4
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I just don’t see the Diesel engine as the engine of the future. I suspect that this will be true even for heavier duty uses. The emission issues are significant. Ford is already moving to introduce a hybrid F150 in 2020. Hybrids are the wave of the future. The issue will be the ability to create torque and horsepower. If they get even close to the Ecoboost performance I think they will take off. Imagine a pickup that gets 30 to 40 mpg! And 20 to 25mpg while pulling!

Even Cummins is working on an all electric motor. They wouldn’t be doing that if they thought diesel was the wave of the future.
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Old 03-04-2018, 12:24 PM   #5
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What about a diesel electric hybrid like those used in trains? Maybe since gas is more popular that would be the choice (and the death of diesel). I'm not qualified to have an opinion on this - I know nothing about the markets or energy - I just drive a honkingly huge 3/4T diesel for my 27FB (which is overkill). Really looking forward to seeing he GMC Denali with a straight 6 diesel - but would really love to see an effective diesel/electric hybrid - the way CSX says then can move a ton of freight 470 miles on a single gallon of diesel. For my 7 ton rig, that's be 63 mpg. I could get behind that....
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Old 03-04-2018, 12:54 PM   #6
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I think of diesel electric hybrid as a bridging technology on the way to full electric.

And it doesn't have to be diesel, locomotives are under test with LNG now, using the existing diesel engines. That is a bridging technology as well.

The end game is full electric, whether battery electric, or fuel cell, or third rail/catenary. The hybrid weight/complexity/cost is just needed until the battery/fuel cell technology gets further ahead with improved range, or the infrastructure is built out for transferring electrical power while under way.

Rail lines can already go full electric. North America is an outlier here with diesel electric, mainly because of failing to invest in infrastructure.

Trains aren't more efficient due to the diesel electric. Every time you convert power (diesel to electricity to motive power) you lose something due to the inefficiencies. Full electric would be more efficient. The low energy cost of moving freight by rail is due to low rolling resistance, and constant speeds.
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Old 03-04-2018, 05:04 PM   #7
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Trains are efficient, as a coal train has 110 cars @ 110 tons each...is 12,000 tons, that is a bit of weight....
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Old 03-05-2018, 05:12 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by utahredrock View Post
Here's an interesting bit of analysis. One guys opinion, but he's got a lot to back it up (I am sure people can find facts to back up the opposite conclusion too).

You can read the initial part of the article without login (registration and login is free) but need to log in to read the full piece, which is pretty long:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/415...6-percent-2019

Let me know if there's a problem with that link. It's the one I got after I registered.

As a diesel lover, I hope he's right, or close to being right.
Smaller diesels in half tons will be very popular, I predict. Since trucks are outselling cars, this may be right.
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Old 03-05-2018, 05:14 PM   #9
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Trains are efficient, as a coal train has 110 cars @ 110 tons each...is 12,000 tons, that is a bit of weight....
Yeah, but Iíd hate to be stuck behind one at a red light lol.
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Old 03-05-2018, 05:42 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jcl View Post

The end game is full electric, whether battery electric, or fuel cell, or third rail/catenary. The hybrid weight/complexity/cost is just needed until the battery/fuel cell technology gets further ahead with improved range, or the infrastructure is built out for transferring electrical power while under way.

Rail lines can already go full electric. North America is an outlier here with diesel electric, mainly because of failing to invest in infrastructure.

Trains aren't more efficient due to the diesel electric. Every time you convert power (diesel to electricity to motive power) you lose something due to the inefficiencies. Full electric would be more efficient. The low energy cost of moving freight by rail is due to low rolling resistance, and constant speeds.
I was just in northern New Mexico and saw several trains go by. That's in the middle of nowhere, so third rail won't work. Killing livestock and wildlife is a no no. Putting the lines overhead would be too costly. So profit rules.

And does coal based electricity pollute more or less than diesel per mile? That's what we have around here for electricity.

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Old 03-05-2018, 06:55 PM   #11
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Coal based electrical generation is worse, but coal is on its way out IMO.
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Old 03-06-2018, 07:19 AM   #12
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Wasn't the Milwaukee Road an electrified rail road many, many years ago? Apparently it didn't pay well for them but much of their demise was probably poor management. It seems like the infrastructure for an electrified railroad would be very costly. A few short years ago they put electrified street cars back in Cincinnati. What a boon doggle that has turned out to be (very predictable). Unbelievable high cost to set up this infrastructure with only 25% of the expected revenue from use.
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Old 03-06-2018, 11:33 AM   #13
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Electrified railways in remote areas? Like the Trans Siberian Railway? Check.

WRT streetcars, we don't have streetcars where I live in Vancouver but we do have a fleet of several hundred trolley buses (rubber tires, electric drive from catenary). We have used electric trolley buses since 1948, and the latest are low floor, articulated buses. Our electrical generation is primarily hydro, so considered renewable.
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Old 03-07-2018, 11:38 PM   #14
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I donít have any interest in electric truck yet perhaps as a diesel hybrid. But I am pleased to see Ford & GM joining Ram in the small efficient diesel half ton market. Ram is useing a 48 volt battery & mild hybrids so far with the two gassers. Also interested in GMs new small 3.0 inline 6 diesel and the oppossed motor diesel that the company put in the f150 at the Detroit auto show.
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