RV Industry Downturn

[John&Vicki]

Relatively short term shifts in the markets and the economy are mostly impossible to forecast. In 20+ years as a stockbroker and analyst I never saw anyone with that ability, despite the constant torrent of attempts (which, of course, continues to this day). Fun to sit around the wood stove, but the chatter is as substantive as the smoke going up the chimney.

However... It’s much easier to forecast long term change given strong trends. And I believe that long term there is going to be a seismic shift in the economies in many countries due to at least four strong current trends: globalization (the many nationalists have their fingers in the dike); increasing production of goods; aging of populations (we boomers in the U.S. are starting to downsize); declining birth rates; technology (human beings are becoming obsolete as tools of production); increasing concentration of wealth (one Amazon, one Bezos, versus hundreds of thousands of mom and pops out of business)....

I’m not going to be around to see most of it, but it will be a fascinating time in human history with radical change at an ever accelerating rate. Change unprecedented in human history.

Throw another log on the fire.

[rowiebowie]

Originally Posted by skyguyscott

Of course there is a recession coming. There's also a bad storm brewing. But, like forecasting weather, it's all about the timing.

Wally himself often felt consternation about the RV market, "There was never a more mercurial industry!" he said.

Summed up nicely. I've been predicting a recession or even depression for decades when I look at our overall irresponsible fiscal polices. And it will happen. But not knowing when it will hit, I live my life and enjoy what we have for now.

My Mom told a story about the Great Depression that I always remembered. She said in South Texas (far way from industrialized areas and financial centers), so long as you had a job it was like "What Depression?" Now, things are so centrallized and inter-connected, we won't be so insulated from the next big one.

[Julie-Bob]

We been RVing since the early 1970’s. Our take on the down turn in RV sales. As stated above. If folks are not purchasing RV. Why in the last three years has it become very hard to travel around this great country of ours without reservations at RV parks? Now days it’s hard to just pull into a park and get a site. Why has Airstream built a bigger manufacturing plant to put more out. I think I read that AS is building 94 a week. AS is only one of many manufacturers of RV’s. I don’t trust any reports any more. Let’s see what has the talk been, oh it was Russian

[OTRA15]

"Mo' people . . . mo' problems?"

[Acheron2010]

Looking at the big picture, August is the time when families traditionally stop camping, stop looking at campers, and spend a bunch of bucks at WalMart and Amazon stocking up on school supplies, clothes and snow tires.
The kitchen and bathroom mods are done, the house has been repainted, fall and winter are coming. Nothing more mysterious than that.

[Bumpy]

Originally Posted by Julie-Bob

We been RVing since the early 1970’s. Our take on the down turn in RV sales. As stated above. If folks are not purchasing RV. Why in the last three years has it become very hard to travel around this great country of ours without reservations at RV parks? Now days it’s hard to just pull into a park and get a site. Why has Airstream built a bigger manufacturing plant to put more out. I think I read that AS is building 94 a week. AS is only one of many manufacturers of RV’s. I don’t trust any reports any more. Let’s see what has the talk been, oh it was Russian

I recently read that from ~ 2012 - 2018 new RV sales increased 5% per year. That’s compounding the volume. Thus the issue of needing to reserve sites. It’s likely why AS contracted for a larger plant. That & they had/have enough assets to do it.

The future is just that, the future. Let’s wait & see what happens.

[rideair]

Pay cash for everything but your house (and pay that off ASAP), and you'll have less worries about the downturns in life and the economy . Like my aunt would say to me when I was a young man, "Paul, If you can't afford to pay cash for the car, then you can't afford the car".

Words to live by,