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Old 09-14-2018, 02:48 PM   #1
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Thor Stock - seems to be dropping

I have seen other posts on this over the years, how Thor Industries (Airstream Parent Company) is rolling in the cash, and so they are not as concerned with quality etc.....

The boom is on in RV sales, but if you look at Thor stock, they have fallen quite a bit since the high-mark of $156 in January. its $95 today....

hmmmmm..... maybe things are catching up. Or is this just the ebb and flow of the market. What do you all think?

https://ir.thorindustries.com/stock-...p/default.aspx
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Old 09-14-2018, 03:00 PM   #2
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What goes up, eventually comes back down.
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Old 09-14-2018, 03:14 PM   #3
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Travel trailer business is probably very sensitive to the current economy. Probably a sign of an upcoming recession.
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Old 09-14-2018, 03:45 PM   #4
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Travel trailer business is probably very sensitive to the current economy. Probably a sign of an upcoming recession.
I doubt it. But the RV market may be getting saturated.
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Old 09-14-2018, 05:47 PM   #5
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Does anyone have access to SEC filings [insider selling?], or stock message boards about this? With all the QC issues, and hiccups on various recent roll-outs [Basecamp, Nest, Atlas, and general QC issues], maybe there are some lawsuits about to become public? Shareholders, dissatisfied customers' class-action, etc.?

Disclaimer -- Please note the word "maybe" above, and the fact that the sentences above are questions, not statements of fact. Let's not start any rumors here!

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Old 09-14-2018, 06:45 PM   #6
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Could be the influence of tariffs on steel and aluminum.
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Old 09-14-2018, 06:57 PM   #7
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And even tho the value goes down, I still get dividends in smiles.
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Old 09-14-2018, 06:59 PM   #8
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I casually follow them.

It got up to 161/share late last year. They have recorded record quarters, but stock price really started slipping in January after topping out. No super specific reasons, like a bad quarter or poor guidance. The last couple quarters they did miss expectations, though recording great numbers. But missed analyst expecations always stings. They are in the midst of bidding for Hymer, the European RV maker, for something like $2.5 billion.

This summer, CEO also said they might feel a pinch from tariff increases.
Something that was said also that I found interesting was that to help maintain profits, they would look to "de-accessorize" (I think that was the term) features on higher end RVs.

Last December I was wishing I had bought THOR stock with the cash I used to buy my first Airstream in Sept 2015, instead of buying the actual Airstream. Would have been a triple by then. Could have bought the Airstream plus twice the amount I paid for it, in stock. But then again, maybe I would never have sold at $160/share, hindsight is awesome.

There hasn't been any real insider selling, nor specific warnings of lawsuits in any of their filings. The report earnings in a couple weeks.
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Old 09-14-2018, 10:10 PM   #9
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I dont think Airstream is hurting Thors value at all. They are in the great position right now where they cant keep up with demand and are expanding manufacturing capacity. The challenge will come later when they meet demand- can they keep the prices and profit margin so high?

No doubt the tariffs will hurt any US company dependent on imports.

Hopefully it will only be temporary; until other countries will trade on equal terms and quit trying to prop up social programs with their own targeted tariffs on US made goods.
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Old 09-15-2018, 12:12 AM   #10
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From what I have heard the tariffs will not affect Airstream as they use US made steel and Aluminum
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Old 09-15-2018, 05:09 AM   #11
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The stock price is not a result of tariffs.
Airstream isn't sold based on price.
Airstream has a price increase just about every year
People taking profit
price is down, possible buying opportunity.
The rise in the price of any stock will always hit a bump.
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Old 09-15-2018, 06:36 AM   #12
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From what I have heard the tariffs will not affect Airstream as they use US made steel and Aluminum
You heard wrong. Even if Airstream sole sourced USA made steel and aluminum, (which I very highly doubt considering this source below);

"The US imported nearly all the bauxite (the only commercial aluminum ore) used in producing primary aluminum. For years, the US has produced less than 1% of the bauxite used to make aluminum. The US also imported 33 percent of the aluminum metal that was used in 2014. Of the imported aluminum, 63% came from Canada."

Not to mention the percentage of aluminum the US imports from other countries, like China, Korea, Mexico...............

Tarrifs on these imports will increase prices on these products, which allows domestic producers of aluminum and steel to increase prices themselves; which is what the domestic industry wanted.

So to say that Airstream will not be affected is flat out wrong; the price of steel and aluminum in the USA has gone up, regardless of where it was produced.

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Old 09-15-2018, 09:47 AM   #13
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I dont think Airstream is hurting Thors value at all. They are in the great position right now where they cant keep up with demand and are expanding manufacturing capacity. The challenge will come later when they meet demand- can they keep the prices and profit margin so high?

No doubt the tariffs will hurt any US company dependent on imports.

Hopefully it will only be temporary; until other countries will trade on equal terms and quit trying to prop up social programs with their own targeted tariffs on US made goods.
Iím sure thatís the general idea.
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Old 09-16-2018, 06:29 AM   #14
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Hopefully it will only be temporary; until other countries will trade on equal terms and quit trying to prop up social programs with their own targeted tariffs on US made goods.
You know, you're right, except for a few things.....you guys started this.

FACT! Canada is the only country in the world that the USA has a trade surplus with; in other words, the USA sells more stuff to Canada than Canada sells to the USA.

FACT! The USA subsidizes its agriculture industry to a far greater extent than Canada does, with Ethanol subsidies and the like. We both have different systems; you give out goverment money for products that are over produced to make up for over production; we regulate how much is produced by supply management.

FACT! There are more dairy cows in the state of Wisconsin than there are in all of Canada. Due to the fact there is no supply management in the USA, the USA produces far more milk than it uses, or needs. Canada's supply management system regulates how much milk is produced and each farmer has a quota system that keeps over production in check. Every farmer makes a very good living from this system. Believe it or not; dairy farmers in the USA would love to have the same supply management system as Canada; which would actually allow them to make more money for themselves.

FACT! Canada's "socialized" health system, for which I am currently intimately connected with, as I have stage II stomach cancer, costs the Canadian people less than half per capita that the US health system costs the American tax payer. The difference in administration costs alone, are over three times higher in the US.

"Total Costs of Health Care Administration. In the United States, health care administration cost $294.3 billion, or $1,059 per capita (Table 1). In Canada, health care administration cost $9.4 billion, or $307 per capita."

The big difference is.......my family have yet to recieve any bill for the chemotherapy treatments, tests or up coming surgury......Nobody profits off my sickness.

People that live in glass houses, shouldn't throw stones.

Cheers
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