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Old 09-06-2018, 01:31 AM   #1
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Hurricane Florence

Even though Florence is still SE of Bermuda, she seems to have a chance of hitting the East Coast.

Mike's Weather Page is the basic resource again: http://spaghettimodels.com/




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Old 09-06-2018, 01:42 AM   #2
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Right now Florence is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where magma flows up from Earth's core, and where two tectonic plates are formed and move east and west.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_Ridge

NOAA data buoy Station 41049 is 300 NM SSE of Bermuda, and seems to be the first buoy which will receive data from Florence as she approaches early next week [see NHC map in first post]:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41049

Unlike many other buoys, this one does record wave height data, which should start to increase days before Florence's winds arrive. This chart should update in real time as we get closer to Florence's arrival near Bermuda early next week. The most recent reading is about 6.5'.





There are tons of buoys west of Bermuda, which you can locate on the following interactive map, by zooming in, and scrolling toward Cape Hatteras, where I would guess-timate Florence's first waves/winds to hit by the end of next week at the earliest IMO, or Friday 9/14:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Folks with travel plans for Fall camping on the East Coast, a great time of year with schools back in session, should continue to monitor the action. We spent a week on Cape Hatteras back in the 90's -- a magical place in the off-season IMO.

Stay safe!

Peter
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Old 09-06-2018, 03:49 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
. . .
Folks with travel plans for Fall camping on the East Coast, a great time of year with schools back in session, should continue to monitor the action. We spent a week on Cape Hatteras back in the 90's -- a magical place in the off-season IMO.
. . .
The forecast models for Florence's possible landfall seem to be focusing on The Outer Banks and Cape Hatteras IMO.
[see bottom chart in first post]

Peter
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Old 09-07-2018, 04:31 AM   #4
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The latest updates to the projected track of Florence are now aimed more for South Carolina and North Carolina FYI.

Peter
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Old 09-07-2018, 11:40 AM   #5
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You can watch Florence move across the Atlantic here, although the ~one-hour radar loop does not permit seeing much movement:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

Note other storms forming off the coast of Africa.

Have a good weekend.

Peter
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Old 09-07-2018, 12:07 PM   #6
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The next few weeks will bear watching.
For a long time Florence was going to curl up east of Bermuda and stay at sea. Today I see that's been pushed way west. Maryland?
More disturbances west of Africa lurking.
I'm not a "Sky is falling" person, but keep a sharp lookout.
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Old 09-07-2018, 02:18 PM   #7
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The NHC just issued info on the system closest to the coast of Africa:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...?cone#contents

Mike's Weather Page:

http://spaghettimodels.com/

. . . has current info including the possible tracks:




Things are heating up in the tropics!

Peter
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Old 09-07-2018, 03:50 PM   #8
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Nope, Mike's is not the basic resource. That would be the National Hurricane Center. But you know that. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
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Old 09-07-2018, 04:43 PM   #9
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Nope, Mike's is not the basic resource. That would be the National Hurricane Center. But you know that. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
I'll take Mike's any day over the NHC.
NOAA has become politicized and I'll leave it at that.
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Old 09-08-2018, 09:07 PM   #10
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The models of the possible tracks are really starting to focus on SC and NC:




See other forecast path maps at Mike's Weather Page, and the charts in the first few posts here.

Peter
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Old 09-08-2018, 10:47 PM   #11
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Hurricane Watch Net

The Hurricane Watch Net is an Amateur (ham) Radio network of volunteers who establish contact with ham radio operators in areas affected by the hurricane to obtain "on the ground" reports for the National Hurricane Center. Interested parties may want to listen to the net. The HWN, when activated, operates on 14.325 MHz by day and 7.268 MHz by night. If you are a licensed Amateur Radio operator, please note: "As a special note to those who monitor when the net is active, we ask that you please honor our request for you remain quiet unless specifically called upon for assistance." More about the HWN is at hwn.org. Howard W1HO
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Old 09-09-2018, 07:44 AM   #12
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Thank you, Howard, and welcome to the forum! Ham radio operators provide an invaluable service in times of crisis, and we thank you all for your service.

Peter
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Old 09-09-2018, 07:50 AM   #13
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"Major Hurricane"

Florence is now projected to become a Major Hurricane ["M"] on Monday, and to make landfall on the the South and North Carolina coasts by Friday:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...?cone#contents



Hurricane Force winds:



These maps should update in real time all week, so anyone living on the coast, from Jacksonville FL all the way north to Maine, might want to keep their eyes open, and wits alert!

Stay safe,

Peter

PS -- The other maps and charts in the early posts are still updating, and the wave heights at Buoy 41049 [300 NM SSE of Bermuda] in Post #2 should be interesting to watch early next week.
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Old 09-09-2018, 08:11 AM   #14
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PS -- Unfortunately a few of the buoys on the way to the coast are out of service, so Buoy 41047 [350 NM ENE of Nassau, Bahamas] would be a next logical one to watch IMO:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41047

The home page for the NDBC buoys is linked at the bottom of Post #2 here.

Wave heights:

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