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09-06-2018, 12:31 AM
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#1
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Hurricane Florence
Even though Florence is still SE of Bermuda, she seems to have a chance of hitting the East Coast.
Mike's Weather Page is the basic resource again: http://spaghettimodels.com/
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09-06-2018, 12:42 AM
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#2
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Right now Florence is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where magma flows up from Earth's core, and where two tectonic plates are formed and move east and west.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-Atlantic_Ridge
NOAA data buoy Station 41049 is 300 NM SSE of Bermuda, and seems to be the first buoy which will receive data from Florence as she approaches early next week [see NHC map in first post]:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41049
Unlike many other buoys, this one does record wave height data, which should start to increase days before Florence's winds arrive. This chart should update in real time as we get closer to Florence's arrival near Bermuda early next week. The most recent reading is about 6.5'.
There are tons of buoys west of Bermuda, which you can locate on the following interactive map, by zooming in, and scrolling toward Cape Hatteras, where I would guess-timate Florence's first waves/winds to hit by the end of next week at the earliest IMO, or Friday 9/14:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Folks with travel plans for Fall camping on the East Coast, a great time of year with schools back in session, should continue to monitor the action. We spent a week on Cape Hatteras back in the 90's -- a magical place in the off-season IMO.
Stay safe!
Peter
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09-06-2018, 02:49 PM
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#3
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
. . .
Folks with travel plans for Fall camping on the East Coast, a great time of year with schools back in session, should continue to monitor the action. We spent a week on Cape Hatteras back in the 90's -- a magical place in the off-season IMO.
. . .
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The forecast models for Florence's possible landfall seem to be focusing on The Outer Banks and Cape Hatteras IMO.
[see bottom chart in first post]
Peter
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09-07-2018, 03:31 AM
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#4
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The latest updates to the projected track of Florence are now aimed more for South Carolina and North Carolina FYI.
Peter
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09-07-2018, 10:40 AM
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#5
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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You can watch Florence move across the Atlantic here, although the ~one-hour radar loop does not permit seeing much movement:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic
Note other storms forming off the coast of Africa.
Have a good weekend.
Peter
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09-07-2018, 11:07 AM
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#6
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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The next few weeks will bear watching.
For a long time Florence was going to curl up east of Bermuda and stay at sea. Today I see that's been pushed way west. Maryland?
More disturbances west of Africa lurking.
I'm not a "Sky is falling" person, but keep a sharp lookout.
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09-07-2018, 02:50 PM
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#8
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4 Rivet Member
Curtis Wright
Currently Looking...
Eyren Haven
, South Jersey
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 326
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Nope, Mike's is not the basic resource. That would be the National Hurricane Center. But you know that. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc
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09-07-2018, 03:43 PM
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#9
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zil
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I'll take Mike's any day over the NHC.
NOAA has become politicized and I'll leave it at that.
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09-08-2018, 08:07 PM
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#10
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The models of the possible tracks are really starting to focus on SC and NC:
See other forecast path maps at Mike's Weather Page, and the charts in the first few posts here.
Peter
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09-08-2018, 09:47 PM
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#11
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New Member
Currently Looking...
Statesville
, North Carolina
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 1
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Hurricane Watch Net
The Hurricane Watch Net is an Amateur (ham) Radio network of volunteers who establish contact with ham radio operators in areas affected by the hurricane to obtain "on the ground" reports for the National Hurricane Center. Interested parties may want to listen to the net. The HWN, when activated, operates on 14.325 MHz by day and 7.268 MHz by night. If you are a licensed Amateur Radio operator, please note: "As a special note to those who monitor when the net is active, we ask that you please honor our request for you remain quiet unless specifically called upon for assistance." More about the HWN is at hwn.org. Howard W1HO
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09-09-2018, 06:44 AM
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#12
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Thank you, Howard, and welcome to the forum! Ham radio operators provide an invaluable service in times of crisis, and we thank you all for your service.
Peter
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09-09-2018, 06:50 AM
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#13
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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"Major Hurricane"
Florence is now projected to become a Major Hurricane ["M"] on Monday, and to make landfall on the the South and North Carolina coasts by Friday:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...?cone#contents
Hurricane Force winds:
These maps should update in real time all week, so anyone living on the coast, from Jacksonville FL all the way north to Maine, might want to keep their eyes open, and wits alert!
Stay safe,
Peter
PS -- The other maps and charts in the early posts are still updating, and the wave heights at Buoy 41049 [300 NM SSE of Bermuda] in Post #2 should be interesting to watch early next week.
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09-09-2018, 07:11 AM
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#14
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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PS -- Unfortunately a few of the buoys on the way to the coast are out of service, so Buoy 41047 [350 NM ENE of Nassau, Bahamas] would be a next logical one to watch IMO:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41047
The home page for the NDBC buoys is linked at the bottom of Post #2 here.
Wave heights:
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09-09-2018, 12:39 PM
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#15
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Site Team
2007 30' Classic S/O
Somewhere
, South Carolina
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 6,436
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Not scientific, no stats but an observation about public perception for Florence.
The bread aisle at our local Walmart is CLEANED OUT!
Folks yesterday late afternoon, nicely stocked, this afternoon crumbs.
FWIW we are about 100 miles NW of Myrtle Beach.
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09-09-2018, 05:48 PM
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#16
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Buoy 41049 linked in Post #2 may start showing an increase in wave heights tomorrow IMO. It is a little north of the projected center track for Florence, but the easterly winds in that quadrant will be starting to kick up some ocean swells with a very long fetch over open ocean. Those long-wave-length swells travel quickly, often many hundreds of miles ahead of the storm center.
Time will tell!
Peter
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09-10-2018, 01:17 AM
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#17
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Bermuda's Weather Service has a number of satellite and radar links of interest:
http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp
. . . including this GOES visible satellite loop, in which Florence's eye is clearly visible at this time:
http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics...IC%20VIS&user=
Right now the eye is at 58W and 25N. Is it shifting in a more northerly direction?
5 degrees of latitude represents 300 nautical miles.
Peter
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09-10-2018, 04:50 AM
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#18
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The warnings are coming out to expect very heavy rainfall and serious inland flooding, a long distance from the coast.
Fall is a traditional time for vacations in The Appalachians. Best to wait a couple of weeks IMO.
Stay safe,
Peter
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09-10-2018, 09:53 AM
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#19
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
Buoy 41049 linked in Post #2 may start showing an increase in wave heights tomorrow IMO. It is a little north of the projected center track for Florence, but the easterly winds in that quadrant will be starting to kick up some ocean swells with a very long fetch over open ocean. Those long-wave-length swells travel quickly, often many hundreds of miles ahead of the storm center.
. . .
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Sure enough this process appears to have started, with a recent wave height just under 9' .
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09-10-2018, 10:23 AM
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#20
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Did I detect a slight move north today?
I need to save the spaghetti models day to day to be sure, and it's still too far away to nail it, but it seemed more N. Carolina and less S. Carolina.
The most wind and rain will be on the north side of a western moving storm anyway, due to the rotation.
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