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09-12-2018, 12:31 PM
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#41
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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And now 18' . . .
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09-12-2018, 02:05 PM
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#42
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
Well . . . call me crazy maybe . . . but doesn't it look like Florence's eye is moving almost directly north in this Bermuda Weather Service GOES satellite view, as linked in Post #17?
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I like this chart also. It makes more sense when you can see land, but basically the eye is stationary, and the Earth is moving under it. So if it is going NW, the scale on the left is moving down while the scale on the bottom is moving right. Lat/Lon.
If the eye moves north, the bottom scale would stop, and I don't see it.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-tim...sBy12hr_12.gif
I did see a wobble but it resumed NW.
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09-12-2018, 02:31 PM
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#43
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad
. . .
I did see a wobble but it resumed NW.
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Yes it did. Still good to see the real-time observations, and not have to rely on the interpretations of the so-called experts who are often using old data.
Great link and image! I had never checked that out. Very handy, thanks.
Buoy 41002 wave height is now up to 21’ — only 7 more hours until the earlier guesstimate of 30’ by midnight!
Peter
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09-12-2018, 04:20 PM
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#44
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Living Riveted since 2013
2016 Interstate Lounge Ext
Green Cove Springs
, Florida
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 8,201
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Current maps show Florence on a track to hit Myrtle Beach straight on as it slides down the coast. We were just there last fall at the state park and while there saw the new boardwalk in town. Sad to say that after this storm they may need yet another one. I hope everyone is safe, what a mess.
__________________
Rocinante Piccolo is our new-to-us 2016 Interstate Lounge 3500 EXT
(Named for John Steinbeck's camper from "Travels With Charley")
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09-12-2018, 06:06 PM
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#45
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Remember, Safety Third
1973 27' Overlander
Catfish Corners
, Georgia
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 5,720
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HowardST
The Hurricane Watch Net is an Amateur (ham) Radio network of volunteers who establish contact with ham radio operators in areas affected by the hurricane to obtain "on the ground" reports for the National Hurricane Center. Interested parties may want to listen to the net. The HWN, when activated, operates on 14.325 MHz by day and 7.268 MHz by night. If you are a licensed Amateur Radio operator, please note: "As a special note to those who monitor when the net is active, we ask that you please honor our request for you remain quiet unless specifically called upon for assistance." More about the HWN is at hwn.org. Howard W1HO
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A four digit callsign? Welcome to the forums Elmer.
Jim
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09-12-2018, 06:17 PM
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#46
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Remember, Safety Third
1973 27' Overlander
Catfish Corners
, Georgia
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 5,720
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Maybe we need another thread for this part.
Many folks leaving the coast are headed to the Atlanta area. If you're bringing your Airstream, the Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, Ga. is offering free "dry" camping. $20 per night for water and power.
As of a couple hours ago, the forecast was for this thing to turn south along the coast once it hits land, then move sorta NW thru the Carolinas. Eastern Georgia will be getting a bunch of rain. Hampton will get rain, but not severe stuff. But, hurricane forecasts change frequently.
Good luck and God Speed.
Jim
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09-12-2018, 07:51 PM
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#47
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
. . .
Buoy 41002 wave height is now up to 21’ — only 7 more hours until the earlier guesstimate of 30’ by midnight!
. . .
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Looks like the Buoy 41002 wave height is stalling out just below 22’ ? [Chart in Post #39]
Hasta mañana . . .
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09-13-2018, 12:29 AM
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#48
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Has the eye passed over/nearby Buoy #41002? Wave heights almost got up to 30', but winds have not been all that high. Air pressure bottoming at 29.30' ? Wind direction switching?
Guessing that there is more action yet to come at this location, now at 2:30 AM EDT.
[click on orange arrow in quote to go directly to Post #30]
Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
The eye of Florence is forecast to go almost directly over Buoy #41002 225 NM South of Cape Hatteras, at about midnight on Wednesday night:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41002
Wave heights currently ~6.5' :
Combined plot of wind speed/gusts/air pressure should be showing some action by this afternoon IMO:
In particular, the wind direction should show a distinct pattern as the eye passes overhead +/- in a couple of days:
More in next post.
Peter
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09-13-2018, 12:37 AM
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#49
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Buoy #41013 is closer to the coast at Frying Pan Shoals, a little south of Wilmington NC.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41013
The wave height is 10.5' now, and will probably keep going up all day IMO. Wind/gusts/air pressure charts are available at the link above.
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09-13-2018, 04:15 AM
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#50
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
Has the eye passed over/nearby Buoy #41002?
. . .
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Looks like it, judging from the charts in Post #48.
Winds topped out at 45-63 knots, or about 70 MPH max.
Curious to hear later reports about max winds at the eye.
Is Florence losing steam?
Stay safe!
Peter
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09-13-2018, 05:42 AM
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#51
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The Wilmington NC airport has winds of only 16-22 MPH so far:
http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KILM.html
Together with Buoy #41013 in Post #49, the airport readings should give us an idea of whether Florence will weaken, as she hits the coast.
Peter
PS -- 41013 winds etc:
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09-13-2018, 10:58 AM
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#52
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Here's the radar showing the outer bands approaching the NC coast and Wilmington. The Wilmington airport is reporting 21 MPH winds and gusts of 35 MPH. The wave height at the Frying Pan Shoals Buoy 41013 is 15' and on the rise. [See Posts #49 and #51]
Stay safe,
Peter
PS -- All graphics from Mike's Weather Page: http://spaghettimodels.com/
This graphic shows the boundary of the hurricane-force winds in the red line, with eye wall wind speeds of 104 [MPH I assume]:
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09-13-2018, 12:07 PM
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#53
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Rivet Master
2002 30' Classic S/O
Fleming Island
, Florida
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,667
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Just saw that GA State Parks are allowing out of site dry camping for free for evacuees. Contact park of interest for info.
Al
__________________
“You cannot reason someone out of a position they have not been reasoned into"
Al, K5TAN and Missy, N4RGO WBCCI 1322
2002 Classic 30 Slideout -S/OS #004
2013 Dodge 2500 Laramie 4x4 Megacab Cummins
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09-13-2018, 01:31 PM
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#54
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The eye is passing just south of Cape Lookout right now, so this weather station is in the strongest quadrant of Florence, but not very close to the eye itself IMO.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=clkn7
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09-13-2018, 03:03 PM
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#55
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Wind speed down to 100.
(Not that 100 is breezy, but better than 140.)
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09-13-2018, 03:53 PM
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#56
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Living Riveted since 2013
2016 Interstate Lounge Ext
Green Cove Springs
, Florida
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 8,201
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It seems the biggest threats now are storm surge and rain.
__________________
Rocinante Piccolo is our new-to-us 2016 Interstate Lounge 3500 EXT
(Named for John Steinbeck's camper from "Travels With Charley")
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09-14-2018, 03:13 AM
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#57
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The eye is in the process of passing over/near Buoy #41037, offshore of Wrightsville Beach in the Wilmington area. [see radar in Post #52]
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41037
The following chart should record the passage, with a recent range of 50-83 knot winds, for a max of ~90 MPH. Air pressure may be bottoming out here IMO.
Winds/gusts at the Wilmington airport, linked in Post #51, are running in the range of 44-71 MPH.
Recent charts starting in Post #49 show similar ranges for various buoys.
Stay safe,
Peter
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09-14-2018, 06:58 AM
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#58
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The Wilmington airport had a recent wind gust of 87 MPH.
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09-14-2018, 08:12 AM
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#59
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Why I don't trust the weather reports. I heard one forecaster predicting 80' waves.
Flo came ashore as a cat1.
Now the rain will be the main issue. Hurricane insurance doesn't cover rising water.
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09-15-2018, 02:50 AM
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#60
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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As many have already said, the rain just keeps coming and coming. The moving radar images are hard to watch, because you have to know that there is some real suffering going on in the many rivers and creeks in the hills. Hesitant to watch the news today.
Prayers for everyone under Florence's deluge.
Peter
PS -- Glad that the coast did not receive the stronger hurricane which had been forecast to hit. Plenty of time left for good vacations on The Outer Banks at any campgrounds which will be open. TBD for sure.
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