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09-10-2018, 12:04 PM
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#21
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad
Did I detect a slight move north today?
. . .
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Looks that way to me, as guessed overnight from the Bermuda WS GOES satellite view linked in Post #17.
The models posted here update in real time, so it is hard to save different views over time, but the current tracks do indeed appear to have shifted to the north IMO. We on Long Island NY are keeping a close watch of course!
Peter
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09-10-2018, 12:15 PM
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#22
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The GEFS models have taken a decided turn northward IMO.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-acces...st-system-gefs
Hopefully the cool ocean water temps will dampen any further development as/if Florence heads north.
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09-10-2018, 12:34 PM
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#23
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
Sure enough this process appears to have started, with a recent wave height just under 9' .
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School me reading that wave height chart.
It appears to be for one bouy only.
Then the dots are for wave heights as the time moves to the right?
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09-10-2018, 12:43 PM
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#24
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Site Team
2007 30' Classic S/O
Somewhere
, South Carolina
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 6,436
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__________________
S/OS #001 2005 Dodge Ram 2500 5.9L 6 Speed
16" Michelins, Hi Spec Wheels, Max Brake, Dexter 4 Piston Disc Brakes, Carslile Actuator, Equal-I-Zer, Dill TPMS. Campfire cook. BMV-712. DEMCO 21K Lb Cast Iron coupler
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09-10-2018, 01:30 PM
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#25
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad
School me reading that wave height chart.
It appears to be for one bouy only.
Then the dots are for wave heights as the time moves to the right?
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Yes.
In Post #2 there is a link for Buoy 41049, so you can go there and check out all the sensors on the buoy. The little graph icons near each data point let you open up various charts.
At the bottom is a link for wind speed/gusts/air pressure all in one chart, a great resource.
If you right-click with your mouse on a chart, you can "Copy Image" which is how I post them here with a Paste command. For instance:
Amazingly IMO they update in real time every time someone opens this page to view it!
Peter
PS -- There is a new wave height ~9.5' on that other chart.
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09-10-2018, 01:40 PM
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#26
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GCinSC2
Latest info sorta
. . .
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Thanks.
Translated: "Git Outta Dodge!"
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09-10-2018, 02:11 PM
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#27
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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PS2 -- That wave height chart just popped up to about 10.8' .
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09-10-2018, 02:22 PM
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#28
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Site Team
2007 30' Classic S/O
Somewhere
, South Carolina
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 6,436
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
Thanks.
Translated: "Git Outta Dodge!"
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Yup. Fortunately I don’t live in CHS we’re about 100 miles inland. Still we’ll be seeing something but not the coastal exposure.
__________________
S/OS #001 2005 Dodge Ram 2500 5.9L 6 Speed
16" Michelins, Hi Spec Wheels, Max Brake, Dexter 4 Piston Disc Brakes, Carslile Actuator, Equal-I-Zer, Dill TPMS. Campfire cook. BMV-712. DEMCO 21K Lb Cast Iron coupler
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09-11-2018, 02:06 AM
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#29
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Wave heights in Post #23 may be peaking at about 23' and winds at 45 knots in Post #25 IMO. I am not exactly sure where Buoy #41049 is, in relation to the eye of Florence, but we should know fairly soon if the center of the storm has gone west of this buoy.
Buoy #41047 in Post #14 would be the next one to watch.
Peter
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09-11-2018, 02:21 AM
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#30
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The eye of Florence is forecast to go almost directly over Buoy #41002 225 NM South of Cape Hatteras, at about midnight on Wednesday night:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41002
Wave heights currently ~6.5' :
Combined plot of wind speed/gusts/air pressure should be showing some action by this afternoon IMO:
In particular, the wind direction should show a distinct pattern as the eye passes overhead +/- in a couple of days:
More in next post.
Peter
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09-11-2018, 02:32 AM
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#31
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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This basic overview bears repeating here. Needless to say, The Outer Banks and Cape Hatteras are probably going to take a direct hit from the right side of Florence, the most dangerous quadrant. Storm surge alone may exceed 10', which could actually cover the entire chain of outer barrier beach islands. Yes you read that right.
Stay safe, everyone.
Peter
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09-11-2018, 05:34 PM
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#32
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
Wave heights in Post #23 may be peaking at about 23' and winds at 45 knots in Post #25 IMO. . . . we should know fairly soon if the center of the storm has gone west of this buoy.
. . .
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Sure enough, it looks like Florence has gone west of Buoy 41049, as wave heights are back down to 12' after a recent high at 25':
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09-11-2018, 05:40 PM
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#33
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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That northward turn just isn't going to happen.
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09-11-2018, 05:42 PM
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#34
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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That seems to be the case. They are now saying that a turn south and west is not out of the question, due to a blocking high in the Atlantic, NE of Cape Hatteras, and a low in the Gulf sucking Florence southward.
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09-11-2018, 06:07 PM
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#35
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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09-11-2018, 11:12 PM
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#36
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Starting to see some action from buoy 41047 in Post #14:
Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
PS -- Unfortunately a few of the buoys on the way to the coast are out of service, so Buoy 41047 [350 NM ENE of Nassau, Bahamas] would be a next logical one to watch IMO:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41047
The home page for the NDBC buoys is linked at the bottom of Post #2 here.
Wave heights:
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09-12-2018, 04:53 AM
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#37
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Well . . . call me crazy maybe . . . but doesn't it look like Florence's eye is moving almost directly north in this Bermuda Weather Service GOES satellite view, as linked in Post #17?
http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics...IC%20VIS&user=
Check's the eye's motion just west of the 70 degree west meridian of longitude. [Meridian labels are at the very top of the frame, in 5-degree increments.]
Probably just a temporary diversion, because all the forecast tracks have, if anything, moved south a bit overnight?
Peter
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09-12-2018, 04:58 AM
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#38
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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This satellite IR image from Mike's Weather Page looks similar, at the end of the loop, to the Bermuda image IMO:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...b-animated.gif
In pink are: Cape Hatteras at the top left; Bermuda toward the top right; and the Bahamas at the lower left.
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09-12-2018, 05:07 AM
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#39
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Florence is still way east of Buoy #41002, but her waves are starting to reach the coast [~9' now]. [See other charts in Post #30.]
As of this hour -- 0715 EDT on 12 September, Earth Year 002,018 -- it would not surprise if the wave heights exceed 30' by midnight tonight IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
The eye of Florence is forecast to go almost directly over Buoy #41002 225 NM South of Cape Hatteras, at about midnight on Wednesday night:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41002
Wave heights currently ~6.5' :
<Snip -- see other charts in earlier post>
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09-12-2018, 10:32 AM
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#40
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The wave heights at Buoy 41002 have jumped another 4' to ~13' FYI.
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