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Old 07-07-2019, 09:26 AM   #1
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Gulf storm later this week?

For everyone's planning . . . the National Hurricane Center estimates a 40% chance of a tropical storm developing later this week in the Gulf:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

This radar loop will show the action for the storm, which is now located over MS/AL/TN, and can be followed in real time during the week:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/so...r-radar?play=1
[Hit Play at the upper left if the radar image is not in motion.]

Mike's Weather Page for general info: https://www.spaghettimodels.com/

The Pacific has had a couple of storms already, but the east coast has been inactive.

Travel safe,

Peter

PS -- Another overview map to watch:

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Old 07-08-2019, 12:56 AM   #2
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The chance of this becoming a storm within 5 days, has been raised to 70%, as of the 2 AM update this morning:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

FYI
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Old 07-08-2019, 06:12 AM   #3
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That’s GREAT! I’m headed to Camp Gulf in DESTIN Wednesday...... I’ll let you know what I find out when I get there....
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Old 07-08-2019, 06:28 AM   #4
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Hmmm. The movie “In Harm’s Way” comes to mind. Good luck!
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Old 07-08-2019, 07:42 AM   #5
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That 70% just got raised to 80% FYI.

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Old 07-08-2019, 07:52 AM   #6
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I don't know how you got the gif map to embed, but it works great.

At least forming so close to the coast, the storm will hopefully have little time to strengthen.
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Old 07-08-2019, 08:44 AM   #7
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Looks like a big rain event for the Panhandle in a few days!
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Old 07-08-2019, 02:58 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rowiebowie View Post
I don't know how you got the gif map to embed, but it works great.
. . .
Thanks. On Mike's Weather Page, right-click [mouse needed?] on the map and choose Copy Image.

Then here, when composing a message, right-click and Paste. [or Edit/Paste in some browsers I think]

Not sure if these operations are do-able on phones/tablets/etc..

There is no substitute for a real computer and a mouse for many tasks IMO.

Peter

PS -- Just added there:

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Old 07-08-2019, 03:04 PM   #9
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Hi

Some of those tracks are right on top of people who still have blue tarps for roofing .....

Bob
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Old 07-08-2019, 03:10 PM   #10
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Tropical storms and hurricanes are not supposed to originate in the United States. This is very strange indeed.
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Old 07-08-2019, 05:26 PM   #11
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FWIW Alaska's temps are running 25% above average!

The Mike's site has added this other collection of projected paths for the system, which will update over time I think.

Peter


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Old 07-08-2019, 10:17 PM   #12
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Another forecast map of interest . . . showing the total 7-day rain possible:




That yellow zone calls for 15" of rain at the TX/LA Gulf Coast, even if the system never becomes a tropical storm or hurricane.

See this recent Key Message: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/key_me...g?201907082331
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Old 07-09-2019, 04:32 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by GMFL View Post
That’s GREAT! I’m headed to Camp Gulf in DESTIN Wednesday...... I’ll let you know what I find out when I get there....

Curious to know if you are still planning on heading into harm's way?
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Old 07-09-2019, 04:38 AM   #14
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"In Harm's Way" . . . what a film!

[click on URL at top to open a new window/tab with Full Screen etc. options available]


[Hat tip to Bruce eagletoo.]
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Old 07-09-2019, 04:40 AM   #15
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Yes, I have enjoyed that movie many times!
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Old 07-09-2019, 05:04 AM   #16
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According to NOAH, a 10 day forecast is right about 50 percent of the time. Might as well flip a coin.

“While there is so much science involved in our jobs, there are still many unknowns. So we get a chance every day to start fresh and give people a correct and accurate forecast.”
Jacqui Jeras, Meteorologist,

Farmers Almanac anyone?
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Old 07-09-2019, 05:11 AM   #17
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Is that the same "NOAH" who had to build the ark and survive a flood?



If you could provide a link for that NOAA info, it would be helpful. Doubt if they are talking about the very specific and detailed rain forecasts linked here. The chances of a major rain event seem much higher than 50% IMO.

Thanks,

Peter
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Old 07-09-2019, 06:29 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
Curious to know if you are still planning on heading into harm's way?
Heck yeah! We only live 3 hours away. If it gets bad we will head home. Camp Gulf in Santa Rosa Beach by sundown or bust.....
I’ll be the Jim Cantore on the Airforums weather thread. I will give live, “toes in the sand” reporting, with lots of suspense. Telling all of the MASSIVE DAMAGE AND SUFERING. Wait, if I’m Jim Cat........ then never mind.......... I’ll miss the storm by 600 miles and have to report from a sunny beach in DESTIN
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Old 07-09-2019, 07:58 AM   #19
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Hi

.... as has been reported in similar threads in the past. These storms seem to read my camping plans and then zero in. More than one has put us inside the target zone over the last few years.

We spent time a couple months back in the area that Michael hit. Half a year later, it's still a mess in part of that area. I would *not* want to get hit by a storm of that size. Indeed, so far this one does not look like it will be quite that big.

Bob
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Old 07-09-2019, 01:07 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by GMFL View Post
Heck yeah! We only live 3 hours away. If it gets bad we will head home. Camp Gulf in Santa Rosa Beach by sundown or bust.....
. . .
FYI this moving radar shows some pretty intense squall activity for the Florida Panhandle already:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/fl...r-radar?play=1



[From Mike's Weather Page linked in Post #1]


https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/...dar_flanim.gif
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