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07-07-2019, 09:26 AM
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#1
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Gulf storm later this week?
For everyone's planning . . . the National Hurricane Center estimates a 40% chance of a tropical storm developing later this week in the Gulf:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
This radar loop will show the action for the storm, which is now located over MS/AL/TN, and can be followed in real time during the week:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/so...r-radar?play=1
[Hit Play at the upper left if the radar image is not in motion.]
Mike's Weather Page for general info: https://www.spaghettimodels.com/
The Pacific has had a couple of storms already, but the east coast has been inactive.
Travel safe,
Peter
PS -- Another overview map to watch:
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07-08-2019, 12:56 AM
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#2
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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The chance of this becoming a storm within 5 days, has been raised to 70%, as of the 2 AM update this morning:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
FYI
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07-08-2019, 06:12 AM
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#3
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Overkill Specialist
Commercial Member
2020 30’ Globetrotter
2014 23' International
Dadeville
, Alabama
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,516
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That’s GREAT! I’m headed to Camp Gulf in DESTIN Wednesday...... I’ll let you know what I find out when I get there....
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07-08-2019, 06:28 AM
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#4
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4 Rivet Member
Currently Looking...
New Hyde Park
, New York
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 429
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Hmmm. The movie “In Harm’s Way” comes to mind. Good luck!
__________________
Bruce
2021 Ram 1500 Laramie - 5.7L Hemi eTORQUE
Airstream Club International #2600
I’d rather be camping is an understatement!
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07-08-2019, 07:42 AM
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#5
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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That 70% just got raised to 80% FYI.
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07-08-2019, 07:52 AM
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#6
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Rivet Master
2012 Avenue Coach
Corpus Christi
, Texas
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,719
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I don't know how you got the gif map to embed, but it works great.
At least forming so close to the coast, the storm will hopefully have little time to strengthen.
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07-08-2019, 08:44 AM
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#7
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Looks like a big rain event for the Panhandle in a few days!
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07-08-2019, 02:58 PM
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#8
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rowiebowie
I don't know how you got the gif map to embed, but it works great.
. . .
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Thanks. On Mike's Weather Page, right-click [mouse needed?] on the map and choose Copy Image.
Then here, when composing a message, right-click and Paste. [or Edit/Paste in some browsers I think]
Not sure if these operations are do-able on phones/tablets/etc..
There is no substitute for a real computer and a mouse for many tasks IMO.
Peter
PS -- Just added there:
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07-08-2019, 03:04 PM
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#9
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,674
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Hi
Some of those tracks are right on top of people who still have blue tarps for roofing .....
Bob
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07-08-2019, 03:10 PM
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#10
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Living Riveted since 2013
2016 Interstate Lounge Ext
Green Cove Springs
, Florida
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 8,201
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Tropical storms and hurricanes are not supposed to originate in the United States. This is very strange indeed.
__________________
Rocinante Piccolo is our new-to-us 2016 Interstate Lounge 3500 EXT
(Named for John Steinbeck's camper from "Travels With Charley")
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07-08-2019, 05:26 PM
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#11
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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FWIW Alaska's temps are running 25% above average!
The Mike's site has added this other collection of projected paths for the system, which will update over time I think.
Peter
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07-08-2019, 10:17 PM
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#12
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Another forecast map of interest . . . showing the total 7-day rain possible:
That yellow zone calls for 15" of rain at the TX/LA Gulf Coast, even if the system never becomes a tropical storm or hurricane.
See this recent Key Message: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/key_me...g?201907082331
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07-09-2019, 04:32 AM
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#13
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMFL
That’s GREAT! I’m headed to Camp Gulf in DESTIN Wednesday...... I’ll let you know what I find out when I get there....
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Curious to know if you are still planning on heading into harm's way?
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07-09-2019, 04:38 AM
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#14
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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"In Harm's Way" . . . what a film!
[click on URL at top to open a new window/tab with Full Screen etc. options available]
[Hat tip to Bruce eagletoo.]
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07-09-2019, 04:40 AM
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#15
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Rivet Master
2012 25' FB International
Trent Woods
, North Carolina
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,120
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Yes, I have enjoyed that movie many times!
Larry
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07-09-2019, 05:04 AM
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#16
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Stay Calm and Stream On
2017 25' Flying Cloud
Palm Springs
, California
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 313
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According to NOAH, a 10 day forecast is right about 50 percent of the time. Might as well flip a coin.
“While there is so much science involved in our jobs, there are still many unknowns. So we get a chance every day to start fresh and give people a correct and accurate forecast.”
Jacqui Jeras, Meteorologist,
Farmers Almanac anyone?
__________________
Stay Calm and Stream On!
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07-09-2019, 05:11 AM
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#17
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Is that the same "NOAH" who had to build the ark and survive a flood?
If you could provide a link for that NOAA info, it would be helpful. Doubt if they are talking about the very specific and detailed rain forecasts linked here. The chances of a major rain event seem much higher than 50% IMO.
Thanks,
Peter
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07-09-2019, 06:29 AM
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#18
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Overkill Specialist
Commercial Member
2020 30’ Globetrotter
2014 23' International
Dadeville
, Alabama
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
Curious to know if you are still planning on heading into harm's way?
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Heck yeah! We only live 3 hours away. If it gets bad we will head home. Camp Gulf in Santa Rosa Beach by sundown or bust.....
I’ll be the Jim Cantore on the Airforums weather thread. I will give live, “toes in the sand” reporting, with lots of suspense. Telling all of the MASSIVE DAMAGE AND SUFERING. Wait, if I’m Jim Cat........ then never mind.......... I’ll miss the storm by 600 miles and have to report from a sunny beach in DESTIN
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07-09-2019, 07:58 AM
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#19
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Half a Rivet Short
2017 30' Classic
2022 Interstate 24X
Carlisle
, Pennsylvania
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 15,674
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Hi
.... as has been reported in similar threads in the past. These storms seem to read my camping plans and then zero in. More than one has put us inside the target zone over the last few years.
We spent time a couple months back in the area that Michael hit. Half a year later, it's still a mess in part of that area. I would *not* want to get hit by a storm of that size. Indeed, so far this one does not look like it will be quite that big.
Bob
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