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Old 07-12-2019, 07:03 AM   #41
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PS3 -- Ol' Miss' continues to rise faster than forecast:

Current water level:
Thu 7/11 1950 EDT 22.68'
Fri 7/12 0613 EDT 22.8'
Fri 7/12 0903 EDT 22.85'

Predicted Sat. high still at 25.0' . . . stay tuned.
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Old 07-12-2019, 07:07 AM   #42
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Water here is DESTIN in Double Red Flag and up about half way on the sand. No rain the speak of but no beach time today for sure.
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Old 07-12-2019, 08:10 AM   #43
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No doubt New Orleans will get a lot of rain.
I just checked Mike's weather page and the maximum sustained winds are 50 mph. Not exactly beach time, but a long way from the Cat 1 hurricane predicted a couple days ago. (74 mph).
I suspect they overestimate in order to cover any errors, but that leads me to factor that in to any prediction and wait.
Remember when NBC's Brian Williams reported on the bodies floating by his hotel during Katrina? Turns out his hotel wasn't in a flood area.
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Old 07-12-2019, 08:19 AM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMFL View Post
Water here is DESTIN in Double Red Flag and up about half way on the sand.
Double red flags indicate the water is closed to swimming due to dangerous conditions.
I don't doubt there are strong rip currents that would carry people away.

I remember seeing huge waves hitting the beach in Daytona Beach with a storm offshore. Maybe 15-20'.
There was a guy on a jet ski running in the waves having a blast. The police were trying to wave him in, but he ignored them. Obviously, they weren't going in after him. Insanity!

Hurricane flags are two red flags with black squares in the center.
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Old 07-12-2019, 09:13 AM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad View Post
Double red flags indicate the water is closed to swimming due to dangerous conditions.
I don't doubt there are strong rip currents that would carry people away.

I remember seeing huge waves hitting the beach in Daytona Beach with a storm offshore. Maybe 15-20'.
There was a guy on a jet ski running in the waves having a blast. The police were trying to wave him in, but he ignored them. Obviously, they weren't going in after him. Insanity!

Hurricane flags are two red flags with black squares in the center.
Yes,
Water is super nasty with a very well defined RIP current right in front of the campground.
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Old 07-12-2019, 09:13 AM   #46
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This offshore Station KMDJ in the National Data Buoy System should be in the NE quadrant of Barry for most of today:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kmdj

. . . where winds are currently running at 42.9 knots from the South. The following chart should update in real time for the next few days, as Barry passes to the west:





As Barry moves north, the wind direction should become more westerly IMO:




I will look for a buoy which is right under the eye of this system, where the wind speed and direction can change rapidly as the eye passes over/nearby. Given that this storm is not a well-defined hurricane, the word "eye" is used loosely here.

Peter
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Old 07-12-2019, 09:23 AM   #47
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Barry's track is forecast to go close to this station:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=einl1

. . . where the following chart of combined data might prove interesting in the next 12 hours or so. Note that air pressure is dropping rapidly as the wind speed and gusts are increasing. If the eye of Barry comes close, that should be apparent on this chart:





PS -- The Patterson Memorial Airport near Amelia and Lake Charles LA also records weather data:

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPTN.html

Winds in Amelia are forecast to reach 54 MPH [gusts of 78] early tomorrow morning:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...Type=graphical
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Old 07-12-2019, 11:53 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
. . .
. . . where winds are currently running at 42.9 knots from the South.
. . .
The wind speed chart in Post #46 recently got up to 66 knots, or ~76 MPH.

Barry is starting to crank up the action.

Peter
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Old 07-12-2019, 12:04 PM   #49
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Barry's track is forecast to go close to this station:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=einl1
. . .
The last high tide "water level" at this Eugene Island station was about 1' above normal.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=8764314
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/wa...tml?id=8764314

This station is about 25 miles SSW of Morgan City LA.

https://www.google.com/maps/search/e...7!2d29.6993748

Any storm surge should show up in the next 12 hours IMO.

Peter
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Old 07-12-2019, 02:19 PM   #50
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Yes,
Water is super nasty with a very well defined RIP current right in front of the campground.
Looks like some serious rain may be moving onshore for you:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/so...r-radar?play=1

Peter
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Old 07-12-2019, 02:32 PM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
Looks like some serious rain may be moving onshore for you:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/so...r-radar?play=1

Peter
Yep. Just finished a band of rain and wind.
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Old 07-12-2019, 02:49 PM   #52
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Ronnie, that 27 GT would be a nice roomy fit right about now.

Stay dry!
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Old 07-12-2019, 05:46 PM   #53
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As Barry gets closer to the coast overnight, the water level at the Eugene Island station will be an important measure of storm surge. The next high tide is around 8 AM tomorrow morning, by which time Barry's southerly winds will have been pushing the Gulf's water northward all night. [See link in quote below.]

Right now it is dead low tide, and the water level may already be starting to spike up [see red line at link below]. This may be a short-term blip up, or the actual start of Barry's storm surge. We will know in a couple of hours +/-.

Prayers for everyone in southern Louisiana.

Peter

[Click on orange arrow to see the full Post #49 -- See Post #47 also.]
Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
The last high tide "water level" at this Eugene Island station was about 1' above normal.
. . .
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/wa...tml?id=8764314
. . .
Here is the actual station 8764314:



The correct home page for this station follows -- sorry for the incorrect link earlier today:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=8764314
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Old 07-13-2019, 03:05 AM   #54
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The storm surge water level is running about 3' above normal, and is rising at a fairly steep angle:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/wa...tml?id=8764314

One item of good news is that the Mississippi River chart in Post #38 has calmed down, and the high level expected today is much lower.

The following radar looks fairly ominous, for all the rain and action on the south portion of Barry. If that lower band holds together over the next two days, the rainfall could be overwhelming IMO. As the weather reporting has said, Barry remaining stationary over the warm Gulf waters, for the last day or two, has caused it to get stronger and more organized.

Prayers for southern Louisiana, and for the entire coastline of Texas down to Mexico.

Peter

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Old 07-13-2019, 03:53 AM   #55
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Offshore wave heights are running in the 15' range at this oil port:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=lopl1

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Old 07-13-2019, 03:58 AM   #56
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The storm surge water level is running about 3' above normal, and is rising at a fairly steep angle:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/wa...tml?id=8764314
. . .
The water level continues to rise at a very steep angle, and is now about 6' above normal . . . a 3' increase from an hour ago.

Winds are from the south [pushing water up against the coast] and a recent gust was 60 knots [~70 MPH]:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8764314
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Old 07-13-2019, 06:31 AM   #57
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The forward progress of Barry is 5 mph, NW.
When a storm slows, it means it will be in the area for a longer time, dumping rain that the lower Gulf Coast doesn't need.
If I remember, Irma came through my area at 20 mph, In/Out. Very little damage here.
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Old 07-13-2019, 06:43 AM   #58
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Looks like we are in the clear for now in Miramar Beach, just a little breezy today. Those folks to the west of us, P-Cola to New Orleans are going to get a ton of Rain. Most don’t need it or won’t be able to handle it so I suspect there will be lots of Flooding for the low lying areas due to the slow moving storm.
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Old 07-13-2019, 06:56 AM   #59
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Yup, "Many Rivers To Cross" on this one, unfortunately.



That tide gauge, linked recently, must have broken, as part of the red line is missing, and the chart no longer shows the 10' water level it did a few hours ago.

Stay safe,

Peter
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Old 07-13-2019, 07:25 AM   #60
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The "eye" [using that term loosely] may have passed near this station recently, as the wind and pressure lines appear to be shifting fairly quickly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
Barry's track is forecast to go close to this station:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=einl1

. . . where the following chart of combined data might prove interesting in the next 12 hours or so. Note that air pressure is dropping rapidly as the wind speed and gusts are increasing. If the eye of Barry comes close, that should be apparent on this chart:




. . .
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