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07-09-2019, 03:28 PM
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#21
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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As of the 2 PM update, the chance of this becoming a storm have been raised:
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent."
"An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days."
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
It's not nice to mess with Mother Nature . . .
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07-09-2019, 03:50 PM
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#22
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocinante
Tropical storms and hurricanes are not supposed to originate in the United States. This is very strange indeed.
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No, because this is not a tropical storm OR a hurricane.
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07-09-2019, 03:52 PM
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#23
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Not yet . . .
"originate"
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07-10-2019, 09:10 AM
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#25
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMFL
Heck yeah!
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Have a great trip!
Peter
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07-10-2019, 11:49 AM
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#26
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Overkill Specialist
Commercial Member
2020 30’ Globetrotter
2014 23' International
Dadeville
, Alabama
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,516
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We will be in Destin in a couple of hours. I will start my on location reporting this afternoon. Stay tuned for special report
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07-10-2019, 01:02 PM
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#27
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad
No, because this is not a tropical storm OR a hurricane.
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Well, it looks like Barry wants to make me a liar.
Cone shows a Tropical Storm by tomorrow then a cat 1 hurricane by Saturday.
Here on the Florida west coast, it's cloudy, but not raining.
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07-10-2019, 01:07 PM
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#28
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMFL
We will be in Destin in a couple of hours. I will start my on location reporting this afternoon. Stay tuned for special report
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I bookmark this page. It's a combination of Google Earth and many weather radars. The latest is about 5 minutes behind real time.
You can zoom or even switch to future cast.
https://www.wjhg.com/templates/2015_Fullscreen_Radar
It looks like the low is directly south of you now, moving west, then NW. Destin should be okay, although there's some cells there right now.
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07-10-2019, 02:59 PM
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#29
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Stay Calm and Stream On
2017 25' Flying Cloud
Palm Springs
, California
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 313
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
Is that the same "NOAH" who had to build the ark and survive a flood?
If you could provide a link for that NOAA info, it would be helpful. Doubt if they are talking about the very specific and detailed rain forecasts linked here. The chances of a major rain event seem much higher than 50% IMO.
Thanks,
Peter
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Here ya go:
https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/
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07-10-2019, 03:16 PM
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#30
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Two of my favorite weather reports.
1. Anderson Cooper stands in a ditch to make the flooding seem worse.
2. Mike Sidel can barely stand up in the horrible wind....until two guys in shorts stroll behind the shot. Busted!
Trust, but verify!
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07-10-2019, 03:26 PM
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#31
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Rivet Master
2010 25' FB Flying Cloud
Davenport
, Iowa
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 2,145
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Did I hear/ read something about "FAKE" news?
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07-10-2019, 05:49 PM
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#32
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Overkill Specialist
Commercial Member
2020 30’ Globetrotter
2014 23' International
Dadeville
, Alabama
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,516
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Reporting from the scene!
All well here on the Gulf. Spotty showers. Water is calm, no wind, and not very many people on the Beach.
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07-10-2019, 07:10 PM
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#33
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HHPJ
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Thanks for the link, which just confirms my supposition than the “50 percent accurate” generalization was only about the most basic 10-day forecast.
Events in the last few days, if anything, have shown that the NWS forecasts have been remarkably accurate IMO, and way more precise than flipping a coin as you suggested in Post #16:
Quote:
Originally Posted by HHPJ
According to NOAH, a 10 day forecast is right about 50 percent of the time. Might as well flip a coin.
. . .
Farmers Almanac anyone?
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Peter
PS — Thanks for the photos GMFL. Well done to venture out!
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07-10-2019, 07:19 PM
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#34
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Overkill Specialist
Commercial Member
2020 30’ Globetrotter
2014 23' International
Dadeville
, Alabama
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,516
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Thanks
Life’s a gamble. Just sometimes the odds are more in your favor than others
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07-11-2019, 03:00 AM
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#35
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Computer failed yesterday, so limited updates today from the iPad. The NWS 4 AM update via the link below forecasts Hurricane status later today and lots of rain for Louisiana. Good luck New Orleans residents especially our Protagonist.
Earlier maps should be updating in real time.
Stay safe!
Peter
Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
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PS — 15” to 20” of rain is no laughing matter.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...inqpf#contents
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07-11-2019, 01:42 PM
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#36
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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That rain forecast map has been updated and now shows a large pocket of rain totaling over 20" !!! The entire south coast of Louisiana is very low-lying, so this event will create significant flooding and damage IMO.
Peter
Possible tracks:
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07-11-2019, 01:56 PM
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#37
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Overkill Specialist
Commercial Member
2020 30’ Globetrotter
2014 23' International
Dadeville
, Alabama
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,516
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Weather from DESTIN today
Had a short rain shower this morning but looking good by the pool this afternoon
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07-11-2019, 05:50 PM
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#38
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Nice photos thanks!
_______________________________________________
Another risk for the area is flooding by the Mississippi River. This chart should update in real time over the next few days:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/rive...%5D=hydrograph
As of this hour, the river is at 22.68' in the Minor level flood stage, and the projected high level is 25' on Saturday in the Moderate level flood stage. [as a benchmark for further discussion here] The record high level is 26' so that is the number to watch over the next two days, as this chart updates in real time.
Peter
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07-12-2019, 02:40 AM
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#39
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Here is the storm surge update from the local NWS office -- as much as six feet in certain locations:
https://www.weather.gov/lix/
[see tabs at top of page for storm surge and other topics]
The Flash Flooding graphic is especially alarming IMO:
Prayers for the many folks who can't move out of harm's way.
Peter
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07-12-2019, 04:13 AM
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#40
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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PS -- Just noticed this from that last Flash Flooding graphic:
"Widespread rainfall totals of 10-20 inches are expected with significantly higher local amounts possible."
If this is implying that >2' of rain is possible, in such a low-lying delta bayou and marshland environment, it could mean that parts of southern Louisiana will basically become one large lake IMO.
PS2 -- The Mississippi River water level in Post #38 is rising a bit faster than forecast yesterday -- now 22.8' as opposed to the 22.68' level noted before. This is a small increase, granted, but if all the water in the upstream watershed -- everything east of the Rocky Mountains, west of the Appalachian Mountains, and up to Canada basically! -- is more than expected, or comes south faster than forecast, this would not be good for New Orleans! [Gotta "zoom out" to appreciate the vast scope of this watershed . . . ]
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