Journey with Confidence RV GPS App RV Trip Planner RV LIFE Campground Reviews RV Maintenance Take a Speed Test Free 7 Day Trial ×
 


Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 07-09-2019, 03:28 PM   #21
Rivet Master
 
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor , New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
As of the 2 PM update, the chance of this becoming a storm have been raised:

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent."

"An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle during the next several days."

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

It's not nice to mess with Mother Nature . . .

OTRA15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-09-2019, 03:50 PM   #22
Rivet Master
 
Mollysdad's Avatar

 
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa , Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
Blog Entries: 1
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocinante View Post
Tropical storms and hurricanes are not supposed to originate in the United States. This is very strange indeed.
No, because this is not a tropical storm OR a hurricane.
Mollysdad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-09-2019, 03:52 PM   #23
Rivet Master
 
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor , New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
Not yet . . .

"originate"

OTRA15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 09:01 AM   #24
Rivet Master
 
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor , New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
FYI a new page for this system:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents

Info options at the top of that page incl. tropical storm wind speed probabilities:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...nd120#contents

Fairly consistent with earlier forecasts IMO.

Travel safe!

Peter

PS — Most of the maps in earlier posts are actively updating in real time.
OTRA15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 09:10 AM   #25
Rivet Master
 
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor , New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMFL View Post
Heck yeah!
Have a great trip!

Peter
OTRA15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 11:49 AM   #26
Overkill Specialist
Commercial Member
 
GMFL's Avatar
 
2020 30’ Globetrotter
2014 23' International
Dadeville , Alabama
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,516
Images: 4
Blog Entries: 52
We will be in Destin in a couple of hours. I will start my on location reporting this afternoon. Stay tuned for special report
GMFL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 01:02 PM   #27
Rivet Master
 
Mollysdad's Avatar

 
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa , Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
Blog Entries: 1
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad View Post
No, because this is not a tropical storm OR a hurricane.
Well, it looks like Barry wants to make me a liar.
Cone shows a Tropical Storm by tomorrow then a cat 1 hurricane by Saturday.
Here on the Florida west coast, it's cloudy, but not raining.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	173249_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Views:	56
Size:	87.6 KB
ID:	346067  
Mollysdad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 01:07 PM   #28
Rivet Master
 
Mollysdad's Avatar

 
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa , Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
Blog Entries: 1
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMFL View Post
We will be in Destin in a couple of hours. I will start my on location reporting this afternoon. Stay tuned for special report
I bookmark this page. It's a combination of Google Earth and many weather radars. The latest is about 5 minutes behind real time.
You can zoom or even switch to future cast.
https://www.wjhg.com/templates/2015_Fullscreen_Radar

It looks like the low is directly south of you now, moving west, then NW. Destin should be okay, although there's some cells there right now.
Mollysdad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 02:59 PM   #29
Stay Calm and Stream On
 
HHPJ's Avatar
 
2017 25' Flying Cloud
Palm Springs , California
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 313
Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
Is that the same "NOAH" who had to build the ark and survive a flood?



If you could provide a link for that NOAA info, it would be helpful. Doubt if they are talking about the very specific and detailed rain forecasts linked here. The chances of a major rain event seem much higher than 50% IMO.

Thanks,

Peter
Here ya go:

https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/
HHPJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 03:16 PM   #30
Rivet Master
 
Mollysdad's Avatar

 
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa , Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
Blog Entries: 1
Two of my favorite weather reports.
1. Anderson Cooper stands in a ditch to make the flooding seem worse.
2. Mike Sidel can barely stand up in the horrible wind....until two guys in shorts stroll behind the shot. Busted!

Trust, but verify!
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	cooperike.jpg
Views:	37
Size:	84.7 KB
ID:	346078   Click image for larger version

Name:	full-bb-1537108380.jpg
Views:	48
Size:	38.4 KB
ID:	346079  

Mollysdad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 03:26 PM   #31
Rivet Master
 
2010 25' FB Flying Cloud
Davenport , Iowa
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 2,145
Blog Entries: 1
Did I hear/ read something about "FAKE" news?
Airtandem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 05:49 PM   #32
Overkill Specialist
Commercial Member
 
GMFL's Avatar
 
2020 30’ Globetrotter
2014 23' International
Dadeville , Alabama
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,516
Images: 4
Blog Entries: 52
Reporting from the scene!

All well here on the Gulf. Spotty showers. Water is calm, no wind, and not very many people on the Beach.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	AA0F00B4-7330-4317-9E29-0473CB15C35F.jpg
Views:	41
Size:	259.5 KB
ID:	346102   Click image for larger version

Name:	3149BDFB-367A-4252-A3B4-49692BD7D47C.jpg
Views:	36
Size:	248.1 KB
ID:	346103  

Click image for larger version

Name:	C373BFC7-BA54-428F-B004-F6BFC2CED64B.jpg
Views:	41
Size:	202.3 KB
ID:	346104   Click image for larger version

Name:	4B67C790-164C-4CB7-9E8F-4E88CD0E6488.jpg
Views:	39
Size:	358.7 KB
ID:	346105  

GMFL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 07:10 PM   #33
Rivet Master
 
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor , New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by HHPJ View Post
Thanks for the link, which just confirms my supposition than the “50 percent accurate” generalization was only about the most basic 10-day forecast.

Events in the last few days, if anything, have shown that the NWS forecasts have been remarkably accurate IMO, and way more precise than flipping a coin as you suggested in Post #16:
Quote:
Originally Posted by HHPJ View Post
According to NOAH, a 10 day forecast is right about 50 percent of the time. Might as well flip a coin.
. . .
Farmers Almanac anyone?
Peter

PS — Thanks for the photos GMFL. Well done to venture out!
OTRA15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-10-2019, 07:19 PM   #34
Overkill Specialist
Commercial Member
 
GMFL's Avatar
 
2020 30’ Globetrotter
2014 23' International
Dadeville , Alabama
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,516
Images: 4
Blog Entries: 52
Thanks
Life’s a gamble. Just sometimes the odds are more in your favor than others
__________________
Instagram @Airstream_Nuts_And_Bolts
DoItYourselfRV Articles
Certified Victron Installer
GMFL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2019, 03:00 AM   #35
Rivet Master
 
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor , New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
Computer failed yesterday, so limited updates today from the iPad. The NWS 4 AM update via the link below forecasts Hurricane status later today and lots of rain for Louisiana. Good luck New Orleans residents especially our Protagonist.

Earlier maps should be updating in real time.

Stay safe!

Peter

Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
FYI a new page for this system:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents

Info options at the top of that page incl. tropical storm wind speed probabilities:
. . .
PS — 15” to 20” of rain is no laughing matter.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...inqpf#contents
OTRA15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2019, 01:42 PM   #36
Rivet Master
 
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor , New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
That rain forecast map has been updated and now shows a large pocket of rain totaling over 20" !!! The entire south coast of Louisiana is very low-lying, so this event will create significant flooding and damage IMO.

Peter






Possible tracks:
OTRA15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2019, 01:56 PM   #37
Overkill Specialist
Commercial Member
 
GMFL's Avatar
 
2020 30’ Globetrotter
2014 23' International
Dadeville , Alabama
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,516
Images: 4
Blog Entries: 52
Weather from DESTIN today

Had a short rain shower this morning but looking good by the pool this afternoon
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	322F14C8-EF05-49D8-9BB0-505FA3A9EEEE.jpg
Views:	37
Size:	331.2 KB
ID:	346162   Click image for larger version

Name:	6B19B143-DC17-4D38-9DA7-FC95AFEDBDB6.jpg
Views:	37
Size:	288.2 KB
ID:	346163  

GMFL is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2019, 05:50 PM   #38
Rivet Master
 
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor , New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
Nice photos thanks!
_______________________________________________


Another risk for the area is flooding by the Mississippi River. This chart should update in real time over the next few days:


https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/rive...%5D=hydrograph

As of this hour, the river is at 22.68' in the Minor level flood stage, and the projected high level is 25' on Saturday in the Moderate level flood stage. [as a benchmark for further discussion here] The record high level is 26' so that is the number to watch over the next two days, as this chart updates in real time.

Peter
OTRA15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2019, 02:40 AM   #39
Rivet Master
 
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor , New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
Here is the storm surge update from the local NWS office -- as much as six feet in certain locations:



https://www.weather.gov/lix/
[see tabs at top of page for storm surge and other topics]


The Flash Flooding graphic is especially alarming IMO:




Prayers for the many folks who can't move out of harm's way.

Peter
OTRA15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2019, 04:13 AM   #40
Rivet Master
 
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor , New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
PS -- Just noticed this from that last Flash Flooding graphic:

"Widespread rainfall totals of 10-20 inches are expected with significantly higher local amounts possible."

If this is implying that >2' of rain is possible, in such a low-lying delta bayou and marshland environment, it could mean that parts of southern Louisiana will basically become one large lake IMO.



PS2 -- The Mississippi River water level in Post #38 is rising a bit faster than forecast yesterday -- now 22.8' as opposed to the 22.68' level noted before. This is a small increase, granted, but if all the water in the upstream watershed -- everything east of the Rocky Mountains, west of the Appalachian Mountains, and up to Canada basically! -- is more than expected, or comes south faster than forecast, this would not be good for New Orleans! [Gotta "zoom out" to appreciate the vast scope of this watershed . . . ]

OTRA15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Florida Gulf Coast trip chuman70 On The Road... 8 10-30-2007 09:17 PM
Gulf Coast Camping in April pmclemore On The Road... 6 03-28-2007 11:32 AM
Gulf Coast is harsh! Need help in Houston johnhcampbell Member Introductions 1 05-25-2006 11:31 PM
Gulf Shores- how is it? ALANSD On The Road... 15 10-20-2004 12:39 PM
Camping FL Panhandle and Gulf Shores, AL Airstream12557 On The Road... 3 10-04-2004 04:39 AM


Featured Campgrounds

Reviews provided by

Disclaimer:

This website is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Airstream, Inc. or any of its affiliates. Airstream is a registered trademark of Airstream Inc. All rights reserved. Airstream trademark used under license to Social Knowledge LLC.



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:49 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.