Get out your spaghetti models

[DMP54]

Yes, once again a storm is headed our way here in Florida- Gulf coast this time. I happen to be in the big bend with family and early forecasts show arrival on Wednesday. Get those Airstreams secured, and have cash, gas, and water on hand. Disaster planning is a good idea for everybody to discuss with family. Hope this one fizzles...

[uncle_bob]

Hi

Just to be complete: We're talking about a storm named Michael. Right now (Sunday) it's a tropical storm. It's forecast to become a hurricane before it gets to Florida. Should be a near miss for me and the route we now have planned.

Bob

[DMP54]

Safe travels uncle_bob.

[OTRA15]

Here is Mike's Weather Page:

http://spaghettimodels.com/

. . . the NOAA forecast map for the cone, and a radar loop, both of which should update here over the next week.

Travel safe!

Peter

[Rocinante]

Weather nerds, unite! Yepper, we got another storm heading our way. Looks like our part of FL will get rain and winds of 30-50 MPH, so not too scary as long as reality agrees to follow the forecast. Stay safe everyone, let's hope this isn't a big blow.

[OTRA15]

Buoy 42003, 208 NM west of Naples FL should show some wind and air pressure action by tomorrow night or so IMO.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42003

Winds are easterly and running 20-27 knots, or roughly 30 MPH max, and are rising, with the air pressure falling.




A wider view of the buoys in the Gulf: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

[moosetags]

We are in the Florida Panhandle between Panama City and Pensacola. Michael looks like he is heading pretty much to our house. We live three houses off of the ocean. Whatever Michael has to off, we will get. We are not in too bad a position as we are 28 feet above sea level here. Lucy is ready to take off if we need to evacuate.

Brian

[turk123]

We are in Ft. Myers and planned to head out tomorrow for the panhandle. Not anymore. We will be staying put until Wednesday.

Gonna test out the generator and Easy start for our trip across the gulf later this week.

My neighbor in the campground we are at right now said, "Don't worry about it. It's just a tropical storm". I told him "Do you know anything about hail?". He said it will bounce right off your rubber roof. Ok.

[OTRA15]

The Grand Cayman airport south of western Cuba is reporting SSE winds of 12-22 knots FYI:

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/cu....php?icao=MWCR

This airport is located under [+/-] the eastern-most rotating purple cell in the radar frame of Post #4, well east of the actual center of Michael.

The chart in Post #6, west of Naples FL, should show further wind/pressure action today.

Peter

[OTRA15]

Originally Posted by OTRA15

. . .
The chart in Post #6, west of Naples FL, should show further wind/pressure action today.
. . .

Yup, here we go!

Stay safe . . .

Peter

[OTRA15]

A little east of Buoy 42003 is Buoy 42097 at Pulley Ridge FL:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42097

. . . where the wave heights are starting to build, in the eastern-most dangerous quadrant of Michael. This buoy is not equipped with any wind or air pressure sensors, so the chart in Post #6 is still the best offshore source for that data.




This buoy is a small waverider unit located 103 nautical miles WSW of Naples, one of many deployed worldwide by Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla CA just north of San Diego.

http://cdip.ucsd.edu/themes/cdip?tz=...&u2=s:226:st:1
http://cdip.ucsd.edu/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-2...itions/6491282
https://www.google.com/search?client...30.bJFMedbnKg4

What an amazing world!



Peter

[OTRA15]

The eye may pass very close to Buoy 42003 in Post #6. If so, the winds and pressure should indicate this. Right now winds are about 35 knots with recent gust of 53.

[DMP54]

Thanks, Peter. I am starting to feel like a real weather nerd, enjoying the links that you provide. Our own Airstream weather channel...
Hang on Moosetags!!

[Mollysdad]

Originally Posted by moosetags

We are in the Florida Panhandle between Panama City and Pensacola. Michael looks like he is heading pretty much to our house. We live three houses off of the ocean. Whatever Michael has to off, we will get. We are not in too bad a position as we are 28 feet above sea level here. Lucy is ready to take off if we need to evacuate.

Brian

I think I'd scram. MIGHT be a cat 3 when it comes ashore. Time for a road trip! Whatever happens it will be fast.

[OTRA15]

Buoy 42039 115 NM SSE of Pensacola is starting to show some action:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42039

The swells from Michael to the south started hitting this buoy a couple of days ago, and are now up to about 16' .



Wind speed/gusts and air pressure::



The wind direction has been easterly, but this will change as Michael passes nearby, with the eye maybe passing over this buoy IMO.

[OTRA15]

This chart shows the projected storm surge if it aligns with high tide, with the worst occurring on the eastern half of Michael where the counter-clockwise rotating winds shove the ocean water toward the shore. High tide at Panama City is around 10:30 PM tonight.

https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/w/surge_5.jpg




This tide station at Shell Point, south of St. Marks [in the map above] and Tallahassee, should show the coastal tidal action today. Right now the water level is about 3.3' .

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=shpf1




Wind speed/gusts and air pressure. The last gust was about 26 knots or ~30 MPH:

[OTRA15]

Originally Posted by moosetags

We are in the Florida Panhandle between Panama City and Pensacola. Michael looks like he is heading pretty much to our house. We live three houses off of the ocean. Whatever Michael has to off, we will get. We are not in too bad a position as we are 28 feet above sea level here. Lucy is ready to take off if we need to evacuate.

Brian

As you can see from that recent storm surge chart, the western side of Michael should result in less surge for your area. FYI a tide station on a pier at Panama City:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=pcbf1

. . . where the water level [red line] is running about 2' above normal at this time:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=8729210

Stay safe,

Peter

PS -- Slightly to the west is this Pensacola tide station:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=pclf1

Water levels ~2' above normal now: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/st...tml?id=8729840

[OTRA15]

Edit --The airport is back online.

The basic weather info at the Pensacola airport last reported at 2:53 AM this morning, so the wind may have damaged it already? Normally this data refreshes every hour 'round the clock, with a 15-20 minute lag time:

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KPNS.html

The various charts from the last day are making pretty significant moves IMO, particularly in Posts #15-16.

Travel safe,

Peter

[OTRA15]

Now a Category 4 with maximum winds of 145 MPH.



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../101145.shtml?

[uncle_bob]

Originally Posted by OTRA15

Now a Category 4 with maximum winds of 145 MPH.



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../101145.shtml?

Hi

Cat 4 ... yikes !!! ....Glad I'm headed north in Tennessee ....

Bob