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08-26-2019, 06:51 AM
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#2
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Rivet Master
2018 30' Classic
Thousand Oaks
, California
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,637
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Thanks. I’m in Gainesville and keeping an eye on this. Not sure we will be impacted beyond rain and wind unless this thing gets huge.
News is reporting that once it starts hitting that land, it will lose a lot of its power and start to die down before it hits US
__________________
BigSxyWhtGuy
Follow our adventures!
@airstreamvagabond on Instagram and YouTube
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08-26-2019, 02:36 PM
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#3
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Dorian looks a little disorganized NE of Venezuela:
[from Mike's Weather Page, linked in first post]
Not too far from Barbados, where the airport should begin to show stronger winds from the NE:
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/TBPB.html
Right now winds are 21 MPH from the NE.
Peter
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08-26-2019, 03:25 PM
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#4
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Watching,
waiting for Jim Cantore to stand in front of a fan.
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08-26-2019, 05:26 PM
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#5
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Rivet Master
2002 30' Classic S/O
Fleming Island
, Florida
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,667
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad
Watching,
waiting for Jim Cantore to stand in front of a fan.
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Did you see the shot last year where a reporter was "leaning onto the wind" and a couple walked by in the the background acting normally?
Al
__________________
“You cannot reason someone out of a position they have not been reasoned into"
Al, K5TAN and Missy, N4RGO WBCCI 1322
2002 Classic 30 Slideout -S/OS #004
2013 Dodge 2500 Laramie 4x4 Megacab Cummins
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08-26-2019, 06:14 PM
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#6
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
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The airport winds have increased to 28 MPH with gusts to 45, with rain and thunderstorms reported, as is visible in that moving satellite image in Post #3.
Should be a wild night on Barbados, and throughout the Caribbean, with the news reporting folks in Puerto Rico battening down the hatches.
Prayers for all.
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08-27-2019, 03:21 AM
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#7
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Airport winds were running 37-55 MPH last night, but the data stopped at 10 PM.
Dorian looks more organized in Post #3 IMO.
Peter
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08-27-2019, 05:07 AM
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#8
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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PS — Watching that moving satellite view, is Dorian turning more to the North, perhaps leaving Puerto Rico to the South?
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08-27-2019, 07:28 PM
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#9
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Dorian is going to pass fairly close to the island of St. Croix, U. S. Virgin Islands, and the following Lime Tree Bay weather station/tidal gauge should provide helpful data overnight IMO:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=ltbv3
This chart of wind speed and air pressure should update in real time:
\
The "Water Level" line, at the page linked above, shows the current high tide running slightly above normal. As Dorian approaches from the SE overnight, this southward facing tidal station should bear the brunt of any storm surge IMO.
Similarly, this wind direction chart should reflect when Dorian passes nearby:
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08-27-2019, 07:50 PM
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#10
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2 Rivet Member
1949 22' Liner
St Petersburg
, FL
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 44
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Dragging AlZeppelin up to Darlington SC tomorrow for the races this weekend. Things could get interesting.
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08-28-2019, 02:04 AM
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#11
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15
PS — Watching that moving satellite view, is Dorian turning more to the North, perhaps leaving Puerto Rico to the South?
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Sure enough, in some models Dorian's possible tracks have moved toward the ENE of Puerto Rico overnight.
[from Mike's Weather page]
The entire coast from Florida to Cape Hatteras NC should watch Dorian more carefully IMO. Ditto for areas like Long Island NY and Cape Cod MA.
Travel safe,
Peter
PS -- Guessing that South Carolina will be fine for this weekend, Al, but heading back home might get a bit dicey, if Dorian tracks across northern Florida. [see updated cone map in first post]
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08-28-2019, 03:46 AM
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#12
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Rivet Master
2020 25' Flying Cloud
Atlanta
, Georgia
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 533
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Labor Day rendezvous in Orlando : We were supposed to go down to Orlando on Tuesday to pick up our new FC 25 and haul it home. I guess it will be delayed for the 3rd time. Thank you, Dorian.
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08-28-2019, 04:27 AM
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#13
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Interesting . . . that old system off the Atlantic coast has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin . . . will she block or help steer Dorian further to the east?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents
Erin actually appears to be drifting south a bit IMO . . . any chance the 2 storms could combine into "The Perfect Storm II" ?
Also, Dorian looks like he is starting to go more northward, as Erin remains stationary or heads south IMO.
Stay tuned.
Peter
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08-28-2019, 04:37 AM
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#14
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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PS -- In that last moving satellite view, see the clear area over the Midwest heading east? Will that High pressure system keep Erin and Dorian offshore?
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08-28-2019, 06:42 AM
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#15
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Rivet Master
Currently Looking...
Mantua
, Ohio
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 7,062
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Sunday should be interesting here.
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08-28-2019, 07:37 AM
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#16
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2 Rivet Member
1965 17' Caravel
Brunswick
, Georgia
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 36
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I can almost guarantee Dorian will bring crappy weather to Florida this weekend- my wife and I have reservations at a campground in Flagler Beach for Friday through Monday!
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08-28-2019, 08:50 AM
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#17
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Rivet Master
2017 26' Flying Cloud
Tampa
, Florida
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 7,620
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Al and Missy
Did you see the shot last year where a reporter was "leaning onto the wind" and a couple walked by in the the background acting normally?
Al
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Yes! That was Mike Seidel, another storm chaser for the Weather Channel.
I've been watching the spaghetti models and they're changing daily.
This morning the path is east of Puerto Rico rather than west. (Good news for Puerto Rico).
So does that mean a northerly change? Too soon to tell. Without crossing the DR, it may spend more time in the open waters and strengthen more. Still showing Florida, but one path (the one I like, Red NHC) has it curving to NC.
Too soon to tell.
I was leaving for a trip Tuesday, but that's on hold because I don't need to drive in the rain for 500 miles!
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08-28-2019, 09:21 AM
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#18
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Local St. Croix radar FYI. [click on Play button for live action]:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/vi/ch...ellite/2184364
The local action seems pretty tame so far IMO. [see wind charts in Post #9]
Peter
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08-28-2019, 09:31 AM
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#19
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Rivet Master
2014 20' Flying Cloud
Sag Harbor
, New York
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 17,523
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Major Hurricane forecast
The cone map now forecasts that Dorian will hit the central Florida coast on Monday morning as a Major Hurricane [>110 MPH winds].
Stay safe,
Peter
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08-28-2019, 09:54 AM
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#20
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Moderator
2015 25' FB Flying Cloud
2012 23' FB Flying Cloud
2005 25' Safari
Santa Rosa Beach
, Florida
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 13,153
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Thank you, Peter, for watching the storm for us as we are still in Wyoming.
Brian
__________________
SuEllyn & Brian McCabe
WBCCI #3628 -- AIR #14872 -- TAC #FL-7
2015 FC 25' FB (Lucy) with ProPride
2020 Silverado 2500 (Vivian)
2023 Rivian R1T (Opal)
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