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Old 08-26-2019, 04:35 AM   #1
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Dorian

Looks like Dorian might be making his way toward Florida and the Southeast states IMO:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents



Mike's page for general reference purposes: https://spaghettimodels.com/

One set of projected paths:



Stay safe,

Peter

PS -- FYA -- Dorian: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorian_(name)
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Old 08-26-2019, 06:51 AM   #2
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Thanks. I’m in Gainesville and keeping an eye on this. Not sure we will be impacted beyond rain and wind unless this thing gets huge.
News is reporting that once it starts hitting that land, it will lose a lot of its power and start to die down before it hits US
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Old 08-26-2019, 02:36 PM   #3
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Dorian looks a little disorganized NE of Venezuela:


[from Mike's Weather Page, linked in first post]

Not too far from Barbados, where the airport should begin to show stronger winds from the NE:

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/TBPB.html

Right now winds are 21 MPH from the NE.

Peter
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Old 08-26-2019, 03:25 PM   #4
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Watching,
waiting for Jim Cantore to stand in front of a fan.
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Old 08-26-2019, 05:26 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad View Post
Watching,
waiting for Jim Cantore to stand in front of a fan.
Did you see the shot last year where a reporter was "leaning onto the wind" and a couple walked by in the the background acting normally?

Al
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Old 08-26-2019, 06:14 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
. . .
Not too far from Barbados, where the airport should begin to show stronger winds from the NE:

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/TBPB.html

Right now winds are 21 MPH from the NE.
. . .
The airport winds have increased to 28 MPH with gusts to 45, with rain and thunderstorms reported, as is visible in that moving satellite image in Post #3.

Should be a wild night on Barbados, and throughout the Caribbean, with the news reporting folks in Puerto Rico battening down the hatches.

Prayers for all.

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Old 08-27-2019, 03:21 AM   #7
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Airport winds were running 37-55 MPH last night, but the data stopped at 10 PM.

Dorian looks more organized in Post #3 IMO.

Peter
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Old 08-27-2019, 05:07 AM   #8
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PS — Watching that moving satellite view, is Dorian turning more to the North, perhaps leaving Puerto Rico to the South?
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Old 08-27-2019, 07:28 PM   #9
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Dorian is going to pass fairly close to the island of St. Croix, U. S. Virgin Islands, and the following Lime Tree Bay weather station/tidal gauge should provide helpful data overnight IMO:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=ltbv3

This chart of wind speed and air pressure should update in real time:

\


The "Water Level" line, at the page linked above, shows the current high tide running slightly above normal. As Dorian approaches from the SE overnight, this southward facing tidal station should bear the brunt of any storm surge IMO.

Similarly, this wind direction chart should reflect when Dorian passes nearby:

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Old 08-27-2019, 07:50 PM   #10
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Dragging AlZeppelin up to Darlington SC tomorrow for the races this weekend. Things could get interesting.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:04 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
PS — Watching that moving satellite view, is Dorian turning more to the North, perhaps leaving Puerto Rico to the South?
Sure enough, in some models Dorian's possible tracks have moved toward the ENE of Puerto Rico overnight.


[from Mike's Weather page]

The entire coast from Florida to Cape Hatteras NC should watch Dorian more carefully IMO. Ditto for areas like Long Island NY and Cape Cod MA.

Travel safe,

Peter

PS -- Guessing that South Carolina will be fine for this weekend, Al, but heading back home might get a bit dicey, if Dorian tracks across northern Florida. [see updated cone map in first post]
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Old 08-28-2019, 03:46 AM   #12
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Labor Day rendezvous in Orlando : We were supposed to go down to Orlando on Tuesday to pick up our new FC 25 and haul it home. I guess it will be delayed for the 3rd time. Thank you, Dorian.
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:27 AM   #13
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Interesting . . . that old system off the Atlantic coast has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin . . . will she block or help steer Dorian further to the east?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at...start#contents





Erin actually appears to be drifting south a bit IMO . . . any chance the 2 storms could combine into "The Perfect Storm II" ?

Also, Dorian looks like he is starting to go more northward, as Erin remains stationary or heads south IMO.

Stay tuned.

Peter
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:37 AM   #14
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PS -- In that last moving satellite view, see the clear area over the Midwest heading east? Will that High pressure system keep Erin and Dorian offshore?


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Old 08-28-2019, 06:42 AM   #15
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Sunday should be interesting here.
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Old 08-28-2019, 07:37 AM   #16
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I can almost guarantee Dorian will bring crappy weather to Florida this weekend- my wife and I have reservations at a campground in Flagler Beach for Friday through Monday!
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Old 08-28-2019, 08:50 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Al and Missy View Post
Did you see the shot last year where a reporter was "leaning onto the wind" and a couple walked by in the the background acting normally?

Al
Yes! That was Mike Seidel, another storm chaser for the Weather Channel.

I've been watching the spaghetti models and they're changing daily.
This morning the path is east of Puerto Rico rather than west. (Good news for Puerto Rico).
So does that mean a northerly change? Too soon to tell. Without crossing the DR, it may spend more time in the open waters and strengthen more. Still showing Florida, but one path (the one I like, Red NHC) has it curving to NC.
Too soon to tell.
I was leaving for a trip Tuesday, but that's on hold because I don't need to drive in the rain for 500 miles!
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:21 AM   #18
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Local St. Croix radar FYI. [click on Play button for live action]:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/vi/ch...ellite/2184364

The local action seems pretty tame so far IMO. [see wind charts in Post #9]

Peter
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:31 AM   #19
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Major Hurricane forecast

The cone map now forecasts that Dorian will hit the central Florida coast on Monday morning as a Major Hurricane [>110 MPH winds].

Stay safe,

Peter

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Old 08-28-2019, 09:54 AM   #20
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Thank you, Peter, for watching the storm for us as we are still in Wyoming.

Brian
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