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Old 08-30-2019, 09:38 PM   #81
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PS -- That Wave Height plot has just put in a new high around 10.8' or so.
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Old 08-30-2019, 09:43 PM   #82
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Just a quick note. The Airstream park in Crossville, TN has open spots available. I know it’s a long drive but it’s safe and quite and the price is hard to beat. When the storm has passed running straight down 75 is pretty easy.
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Old 08-30-2019, 09:48 PM   #83
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This storm looks nastier for the southern Atlantic coast with every update. If it streams up the east coast of Florida and on to GA and SC and then NC without ever really landing, this is going to be one heck of a mess. Stay safe, and get your campers into storm-safe storage or out of harm's way starting right now. If you head north and west and it turns out you didn't really need to, the only "harm" is that you camped somewhere you didn't expect and maybe had some new experiences. Keep your fingers crossed for a better path, but it's looking ugly and roads will be jammed up with panicked evacuees a lot sooner than you might expect.
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Old 08-31-2019, 04:09 AM   #84
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5am...eye may not reach coast before the turn north. Going up east coast slowky just off shore. Gonna be hell for the coastal areas. Still could change, though.. Goid news for us! Inland.
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Old 08-31-2019, 04:57 AM   #85
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Certainly getting our attention in New England!

That black label -- "988mb/144 [hours out]" -- would put the eye south of Long Island NY on about Thursday.




Fortunately 988 millibars of air pressure is not all that low for a hurricane, as of this early forecast. TBD for sure.

Track possibilities here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#05L

Peter

PS -- The wave height in Post #80 got up to 14' overnight.
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Old 08-31-2019, 05:10 AM   #86
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Still not much action just east of Palm Beach FL . . . that may change in the next 24 hours.

Peter

[Post #54 -- click on orange arrow to go there]
Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
Looking further out on the horizon, Dorian is forecast to go over NDBC Station SPGF1 on Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island in ~2-3 days.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=spgf1

This location is roughly 60 miles east of Palm Beach FL.

The following familiar combined chart might start showing signs of Dorian by Sunday morning IMO.



There is no Wave Height data at this land-based weather station.

Peter
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Old 08-31-2019, 06:54 AM   #87
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YES!
ahem, sorry to our friends in S.C.
Jacksonville and points south will be spared the more dangerous side of the storm.
Less than an hour ago!
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Old 08-31-2019, 06:57 AM   #88
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Sure, if the storm's going bend like this, I'm going to hope for a storm that stays at least 50-100 miles off the FL coast, because a recent report said the storm wall with those Cat 4 winds extends 25 miles from the eye. That said, the correct word is "may," as in "may be spared..." The cone of uncertainty is large and the storm could still change direction in some pretty dramatic ways. Keep those seat belts fastened and those hatches battened down and all that, just in case.
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:07 AM   #89
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I remember that Hurricane Andrew was predicted to swing up the coast and hit land around Jacksonville to Charleston. So we were down in Key Largo lobstering on beautiful Saturday afternoon. That evening we learned that it had made a left turn and was heading straight for South Miami. Don't trust the spaghetti until the last 24 hours!
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:47 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by mojo View Post
I remember that Hurricane Andrew was predicted to swing up the coast and hit land around Jacksonville to Charleston. So we were down in Key Largo lobstering on beautiful Saturday afternoon. That evening we learned that it had made a left turn and was heading straight for South Miami. Don't trust the spaghetti until the last 24 hours!
27 years ago last week!
I was in Miami for a pre season football game. We returned to the hotel and the TV over the bar showed a massive storm.
Cat 5. Back then, I didn't pay too much attention so I'm asking people, "Cat 5 is that the smallest or the largest?"
The next day I was scheduled to do an event on Key Biscayne. It was cancelled. But amazingly, the weather looked fine. Before the advent of radar and satellite weather, no one would know. The Miami airport looked like a small country being evacuated. They put you on a flight anywhere, "They'll figure it out from there!"
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:55 AM   #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mojo View Post
Don't trust the spaghetti until the last 24 hours!
Here's why I like spaghetti models, Trends. I watch several times a day, living in Florida. Take with Irma, two years ago. It was supposed to go up the east coast, then up the central portion of the state, then up the west coast, and that's when I "scram-a-vieux'd".
The spaghetti models more closely agree as they get closer to the storm, but I don't recall they ever reversed direction.
So two days ago, Dorian was predicted to go up the center of Florida, yesterday, up the east coast. Today, off the east coast. It's a trend I'll follow.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad View Post
Can we hope this skirts the east coast and keeps going?
Who said that in Post # 73?
Oh, I did.
Part wishful thinking, part hope, part science.

The 11 am cone is in, and the Florida west coast is now out of the cone.
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Old 08-31-2019, 10:12 AM   #92
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The models have to guess at what the steering will be. The locations and strengths of highs and lows are variable and models make estimates. The closer the clock time to the model time, the more accurate they are. After several years of watching, I have observed that back and forth oscillations are common. Further, as the NHC Discussion says, the forecaster puts windage (no pun intended) on the model outputs to avoid gross changes and/or undue alarm.

I'm still headed for Jacksonville but don't anticipate being there too long before returning to Melbourne.

Al
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Old 08-31-2019, 10:21 AM   #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Al and Missy View Post
The models have to guess at what the steering will be. The locations and strengths of highs and lows are variable and models make estimates. The closer the clock time to the model time, the more accurate they are. After several years of watching, I have observed that back and forth oscillations are common. Further, as the NHC Discussion says, the forecaster puts windage (no pun intended) on the model outputs to avoid gross changes and/or undue alarm.

I'm still headed for Jacksonville but don't anticipate being there too long before returning to Melbourne.

Al
Most of our family in Jacksonville in is evacuauting over to Santa Rosa Beach. One son is already there and another one is on his way along with SuEllyn's brother.

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Old 08-31-2019, 12:20 PM   #94
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There is some uniformity coming together in these track forecasts, first posted in Post #70:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#05L

The air pressure expected south of Long Island NY, however, has dropped from 988mb [Post #85] to 971mb, which suggests a stronger storm IMO.

Peter
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Old 08-31-2019, 12:31 PM   #95
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Dorian is very organized and steaming west. The chart in Post #86, 60 miles east of Palm Beach, should start acting up soon IMO.

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Old 08-31-2019, 12:49 PM   #96
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The 2 pm cone looks like the 11 am, which tells me the data is getting more accurate.
The spaghetti model has the path slightly more offshore N.C. instead of touching. (I watch the AVN1 model, which is the GFS data interpolated 6 hours ahead. RED line)
By the end of Hurricane season, I'll need a 12 step program to stop 'Mike's Weather Page'.
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Old 08-31-2019, 03:20 PM   #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rocinante View Post
Sure, if the storm's going bend like this, I'm going to hope for a storm that stays at least 50-100 miles off the FL coast
Your wish has been granted!
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Old 08-31-2019, 03:58 PM   #98
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Dodged a bullet here.
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Old 08-31-2019, 04:06 PM   #99
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Dorian

We’re still squatting in North Carolina carefully watching the weather reports. Managed to reschedule the Disneyworld trip from September 2 to September 5 start date without loosing all the dining reservations but one. Fast pass planning is blown but that’s a minor issue. We’re waiting to see what happens before we head south to Florida.

We’re touristing around in Wilmington, NC for now, staying with very understanding friends. Helping them get ready if it heads and hits this way.
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Old 08-31-2019, 05:10 PM   #100
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Figures. We leave for Newfoundland on Monday...��
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