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Old 08-30-2019, 06:23 AM   #61
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Dorian

If your RV isn’t stored inside a building, go north. Go now. Why play around and get stuck in panicked traffic with a bunch of last-minute-Louies who are more likely to crash into you than reach their destination? Given the models, I’d avoid the FL panhandle and the Gulf coast. There’s plenty of good camping in TN and KY, go try it out for a week or so. [emoji16]
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Old 08-30-2019, 06:26 AM   #62
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This mornings model summary. Current forecast landing zone is between Jupiter and West Palm Beach, but the cone of uncertainty is still quite large. Click image for larger version

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Old 08-30-2019, 06:44 AM   #63
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Thumbs up

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Originally Posted by Rocinante View Post
If your RV isn’t stored inside a building, go north. Go now. Why play around and get stuck in panicked traffic with a bunch of last-minute-Louies who are more likely to crash into you than reach their destination? Given the models, I’d avoid the FL panhandle and the Gulf coast. There’s plenty of good camping in TN and KY, go try it out for a week or so. [emoji16]
Sounds good.

Peter
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Old 08-30-2019, 06:56 AM   #64
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This mornings model summary. Current forecast landing zone is between Jupiter and West Palm Beach, but the cone of uncertainty is still quite large. Attachment 350840Attachment 350841
Today's track is a mixed bag. The storm is slowing, which is bad for gathering strength, but good for making a turn north before crossing all of Florida. Looks like landfall is farther south, but the turn more dramatic. (I hope)
Meanwhile, my AS is safely parked under cover rated for 120 mph, so it's staying for now. My Trip to Wyoming is on hold until things move out.

Back in my boating days, we'd take the NOAA wave heights and add them together. "Expect waves of 4'-6'". "Okay, looks like 10' waves!"
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Old 08-30-2019, 07:30 AM   #65
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Stay or go north

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Originally Posted by Foiled Again View Post
JUST bought into Travelers Rest & Resort, Dade City Florida. (Pasco County)
Great timing, eh? Have a full tank of diesel.

Do I stay or get on I-75 and boogie North? Long time Floridians, please recommend!

Thanks, Paula
We bought our first home in Naples, Fl. in 1990. Moved there full time in 2001 into a new home. We stayed in the house through Charlie (2004) and Wilma (2006 I think). I would go north if I were you. We suffered no damage but the house was constructed to post Andrew codes. No way would I want to ride out a Major storm in an RV. Head north. Be safe. We moved to North Carolina in 2014.

We are set to be at Land Yacht Harbor in Melbourne, Fl. for the winter. We have our fingers crossed that it will be there come November.
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Old 08-30-2019, 07:38 AM   #66
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Decisions, decisions

I don't understand the people who are thinking of staying in S or C Florida when they can leave ... or to continue a trip in that direction. My sailing days taught me many things, but probably the primary one is how to deal with risk.
--Take precautions immediately after the first time you think, "I wonder if I should ..."
--Don't be afraid to act like a wuss when everyone else is acting like a hero.
--Make your best decision based on the best available evidence, and act on it immediately--you can laugh about it later.

I had already decided that last night at 6:00 was our failsafe point. By Thursday night at 6:00 it was still pretty unclear: there was this little southern wiggle that looked like it might head south, well clear of Orlando. But with the best information we had then, the decision had to be to cancel our third attempt to pick up our new baby.

If we don't go and we're wrong, we'll laugh. If we do go and we're wrong, we won't be laughing.
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Old 08-30-2019, 07:40 AM   #67
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Huh. That's what I thought I was seeing last night at midnight: a little jog south, then a turn north. The decision not to drive south down I 75 into that mess wasn't difficult.
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Old 08-30-2019, 08:45 AM   #68
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The decision not to drive south down I 75 into that mess wasn't difficult.
Yes.
The big problem is in Florida you're trapped if you go south.
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Old 08-30-2019, 10:12 AM   #69
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The 11am track has it moving north sooner.
The spaghetti models aren't updated.
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Old 08-30-2019, 12:56 PM   #70
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"Whoa, Dorian, Whoa . . . !"



Here is why folks in New England pay attention to hurricanes in the south:




From/via Mike's Weather Page: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#05L

more coming on edit please stand by
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Old 08-30-2019, 01:02 PM   #71
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Hi Peter. We are in Fort Wilderness right now, preparing to leave tomorrow late morning. Heading back north to LI. Stopping overnight in Santee, SC and then in MD. We should be able to beat this storm north.
Thanks for the updates.
Thanks Bruce. Be sure to keep moving north, in light of the possible tracks shown in Post #70. Safe home.

Peter
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Old 08-30-2019, 01:54 PM   #72
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We are packing up and leaving Gainesville tomorrow AM and seeking refuge in Pensacola. Assuming this sucker doesn’t follow us, we should be safe. If it does follow us, I’d like to take a moment and personally apologize to everyone. I take responsibility.
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Old 08-30-2019, 03:01 PM   #73
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The 5pm cone is in!
Track moved more north
Spaghetti models also show movement north.
I like to follow the NHC or the AVNI track.
Until now the AVNI track went to Tampa, then up.
Can we hope this skirts the east coast and keeps going?
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Old 08-30-2019, 03:49 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by BigSxyWhtGuy View Post
We are packing up and leaving Gainesville tomorrow AM and seeking refuge in Pensacola.
. . .
That option is looking better and better.

Good luck,

Peter

PS — possible links for traffic info:

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/trafficinfo/fl.htm
https://fl511.com/
https://www.flhsmv.gov/florida-highw...fic-incidents/
https://www.flhsmv.gov/fhp/traffic/l...ffic_feed.html
https://fdotwp1.dot.state.fl.us/TrafficInformation/
.....[note yellow boxes with + signs to open for traffic volume]

-30-
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Old 08-30-2019, 04:16 PM   #75
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Got to go, just have to decide where

Until the 5:00 update we were feeling pretty good and planning to go to our daughter's house in Jacksonville. That doesn't look like a great option at this point.

There doesn't appear to be a good bug out option with the trailer given the scarcity of fuel and the uncertainty of the impact. FL state parks will close if tropical storm force winds are expected.

NC is looking better and better and we have a place to go to. I just really don't want to drive 12-13 hours. I can get 500 miles up the road in the truck without the trailer so I should be able to get diesel somewhere.

I think we will hang tight until there is a little more certainty in the forecasts and then decide on where to go. The handwriting appears to be on the wall that we are going somewhere.

Al
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Old 08-30-2019, 04:19 PM   #76
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Good luck, Peter

PS — possible links for traffic info:

https://fl511.com/
I keep fl511 on my phone.
If you check "traffic cameras" then zoom in you can click on any camera and see it in a snapshot.
Here's one just N of Gainesville!
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Old 08-30-2019, 04:34 PM   #77
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Great tip thanks.

Peter
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Old 08-30-2019, 05:14 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Al and Missy View Post
Until the 5:00 update we were feeling pretty good and planning to go to our daughter's house in Jacksonville. That doesn't look like a great option at this point.

There doesn't appear to be a good bug out option with the trailer given the scarcity of fuel and the uncertainty of the impact. FL state parks will close if tropical storm force winds are expected.
This. ^^^

We’re a couple-ish hours south of you and experiencing our first summer in Florida. This is quite the baptism by fire...I would have been ok with sticking our toes in the water with a CAT 1 or 2, but to jump right in with a CAT 4 that might make landfall right where we live? Not funny.

Anyway, most Florida State Park campgrounds are already closed. It takes us two fuel fill-ups to get out of Florida from home, and that’s with no traffic slowdowns. Right now, fuel is almost impossible to find on the east coast of Florida, so even if we leave now, we have no guarantee we’d be able to get somewhere safe before the storm. Our 95 year-old home has survived two CAT 5 direct hits in its life and it’s still standing. It’s been upgraded with hurricane-rated windows, and we’re just far enough away from the IntraCoastal Waterway to be out of the flood and evacuation zones.

The 5 PM model run is pushing the storm just a little farther east, and we’re hoping that trend continues. We’re going to wait it out at this point, and likely stay if no drastic, negative changes occur.

Let’s hope the final track keeps us all out of the catastrophic path of this storm.

Jim
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Old 08-30-2019, 05:45 PM   #79
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Hopefully the rush for the exits will not . . . overwhelm the system . . .



Personally I would be prepared to hunker down in the trailer anywhere you have to . . . full water tank and plenty of bottled water . . . empty holding tanks . . . food, propane . . . etc. . . .

If you are stuck in traffic at least you can survive in the trailer . . . under most conditions.

Good luck to all of you in Florida!

Peter
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Old 08-30-2019, 08:23 PM   #80
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This NDBC Station 41047 is 350 NM ENE of Nassau, Bahamas, and is a little north of Dorian's path:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41047

Because this buoy is in the most powerful quadrant of the storm, however, the Wave Heights are already being affected by the storm's passage to the south:



Not sure if these heights will increase overnight, or if the above 10.5' data point is maxed out.

There are not any other buoys near Dorian's projected path for a while, until he gets closer to the Settlement Point weather station posted yesterday [Post #54], which I will re-post tomorrow at some point. Right now it is too far west of Dorian to register any increased winds etc..

The projected storm tracks seem to be shifting more to the east, which is good news for almost everyone. Storm surge on the coast will still be profound IMO.

Travel safe.

Peter
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