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Old 08-28-2019, 11:55 AM   #21
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Thanks Brian. What an amazing trip you have had to Alaska! Thank you for the many photos . . . as always your eye for architectural detail is great. Safe home.

The local radar [Post #18] shows Dorian's eye moving north of St. Croix earlier, and now past the British Virgin Islands. The wind charts [Post #9] show a range of 28-34 knots [<40 MPH], with sharp wind direction shifts recently. The air pressure seems to have bottomed recently at ~29.79 inches, not too bad as these storms go IMO.

Puerto Rico appears to have been spared by Dorian . . . great news if so!

Now those of us in New England will join the entire east coast to see what Dorian does next. The high pressure system discussed in Post #14 is probably not massive [or long-lasting] enough to stop Dorian, as he now starts a 3-4 day march northwestward, over very warm water.

Not sure when the hurricane hunter aircraft are schedule to take a pass at Dorian, but hopefully in the next couple of days, we will have some hard data about wind speeds, ocean water temperature, and integrity of the storm's eye. I will look for some NDBC buoys still active [for years, declining federal budgets have resulted in these vital buoys not being repaired/replaced when damaged -- short-sighted IMO].

Peter
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Old 08-28-2019, 12:37 PM   #22
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NDBC Station 41046 -- 335 NM east of San Salvador Island, Bahamas -- should be just east of Dorian's projected path in a couple of days:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41046

This combined chart should update in real time, and reveal Dorian's passage, by Friday morning I would guess:







The Wave Heights at 41046 should start to pick up during the day on Thursday, as Dorian's swells project northward, faster than the eye's actual forward motion:




Travel safe,

Peter
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:09 PM   #23
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We are in Gainesville FL, inland from where land fall may be. First hurricane, we are planning on heading south toward Miami if this thing pushes north Florida. If it heads southish, we will head north.

Will know more in a couple days.

Am I over reacting not wanting to ride this thing out at our current location?

Everyone around us seems pretty unworried about it. Thoughts?
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:48 PM   #24
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We are both Native Floridians. I grew up in Miami in the 50's and 60's. SuEllyn grew up in Jacksonville.

When I was a boy in Miami, there were several serious hurricanes that hit south Florida. We just hunkered down. Not many evacuated then as there was nowhere to go no way to get there. There was no I-95 or I-75 then. Also, forecasting was not what it is now. We did not get the kind of advance warning that we have today. We stayed and did the best we could because we had to.

Today is a different story. You will know in plenty of time if you need to get out. Even though Gainesville may not be directly impacted by the storm, it can cause enough damage that you may be without power for several days or more. If you do leave, dispose of everything in your refrigerator so that you will not have to throw the refrigerator out when you return.

If you feel uncomfortable, take your Airstream and go.

Brian
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:49 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigSxyWhtGuy View Post
. . .
Am I over reacting not wanting to ride this thing out at our current location?
. . .
Depends IMO.

Do you have good insurance?

Are there trees near you, which could fall on the trailer? Any risk of flooding from any body of water? Is your trailer exposed to strong winds?

The last few hurricanes which swept through Texas to the Florida panhandle produced tons of rain, which overwhelmed rivers and urban storm drains, resulting in massive flooding [thinking of Houston in what, was it two hurricanes in a row more or less?]

If you can pinpoint your location, and what major rivers or salt-water estuaries are near you, folks nearby could help assess the risks. If any nearby body of water rose 6' or more, would that be a problem?

As you plan evacuation routes, I would look for higher ground, first and foremost. FWIW Miami is not the first "higher elevation" place which comes to mind . . . for that matter, most of Florida is not on the list.

Good luck,

Peter

PS -- "Florida hurricane" AF search results: https://www.google.com/search?q=Flor...com&gws_rd=ssl
PS2 -- Good advice from Brian: "If you feel uncomfortable, take your Airstream and go."
PS3 -- The cone map was updated recently, and reflects Dorian's increased forward speed, with landfall now possible by Sunday afternoon [not the previous 8 AM Monday].
PS4 --Most of the various track forecast maps on Mike's Weather Page seem to suggest that northern Florida could take quite a hit IMO.
PS5 --Google Map's Terrain mapping function seems to be out. Maybe only members can see it?
Basic elevation info here: https://growth-management.alachuacounty.us/maps/Digital_Elevation_Model.pdf
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Old 08-28-2019, 03:16 PM   #26
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Dorian

Sigh. I guess this is all my fault, for scheduling a trip to Disneyworld next week** Good thing I parked the Airstream in Northern Alabama to keep it out of harms way in the DC area where we are at the moment. I’m watching this thread to see how it’s going and adjusting my plans as we see what happens.

**Last time we went was in 2013. It rained buckets full on the first day that time as well. This time we brought our official Disney ponchos along just to be prepared. So of course, we get a hurricane. Good thing I grew up in Florida and know how to deal with this—I.e. stay clear if possible. This should be ‘interesting in the Spockian sense.’
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Old 08-28-2019, 03:41 PM   #27
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Spock or . . . ?





PS -- Note that this is apparently thread number "200,000" on AirForums. [check URL above]

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Old 08-28-2019, 05:01 PM   #28
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The latest spaghetti model shows more of a bend into Central Florida.
If I lived on the east coast, I'd be thinking of scramming.
I was supposed to start a trip west on Tuesday, but I'm sitting tight. (in Tampa)
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Old 08-28-2019, 05:06 PM   #29
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Dorian

The furthest south we plan to get is North Carolina with an optional bail to Huntsville Alabama if it gets too close.

Not something to fool with, Airstream in tow or not...
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Old 08-28-2019, 06:16 PM   #30
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Buoy 41043 is 170 NM NNE of San Juan, Puerto Rico:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41043



. . . with recent winds of 25-33 knots [<40 MPH] and air pressure down to 29.94 inches. If Dorian has already passed even with this buoy, winds should abate tonight and pressures rise IMO.

Wave heights have increased all day up to just under 6' . If this is all Dorian has to show, it may be losing strength? Not sure how close Dorian is/will be to this buoy.

According to this evening's update, maximum sustained winds are 80 MPH:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/290005.shtml

Peter

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Old 08-29-2019, 04:03 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mollysdad View Post
The latest spaghetti model shows more of a bend into Central Florida.
. . .
Good call . . . this trend appears to have continued overnight, with landfall now forecast to be near Fort Pierce or Vero Beach IMO.

The charts in Post #22 will be interesting to watch today [they update in real time], as Dorian passes closer to buoy 41046.

[click on orange arrow in quote to see the charts]
Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
NDBC Station 41046 -- 335 NM east of San Salvador Island, Bahamas -- should be just east of Dorian's projected path in a couple of days:
. . .
Possible tracks to North Carolina seem less of a risk IMO.

Peter

PS -- It is interesting to start at the first page, and scroll through the charts for current updates, plus a "rear view mirror" glimpse of Dorian's passage going by certain buoys.
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Old 08-29-2019, 04:23 AM   #32
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Go to Mikes weather page. com.
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Old 08-29-2019, 04:30 AM   #33
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Some areas just west of us got iver 15 inches if rain last week, they do not need any more. Latest for us, pissibke 100mplh winds , rain, not much if a tornado threat. Things can change quickly. Genny ready, food supply up, water stored, tree removel tools ready, batterys abd candles okay, vehicles fueled up, this could be the worse one to hit here in 30 years.
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Old 08-29-2019, 04:48 AM   #34
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Good prep work. Mike's Weather Page is linked in the first post.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

Even if Dorian tracks south of you, of course you will be in the dangerous quadrant. The storm seems to have slowed a bit FWIW. Latest discussion:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../290843.shtml?

Good luck, all,

Peter
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Old 08-29-2019, 08:59 AM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigSxyWhtGuy View Post
. . .
. . . If it heads southish, we will head north.
. . .
Wondering if you have headed north? How is the road traffic?

Good luck,

Peter
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Old 08-29-2019, 10:44 AM   #36
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Tropical Storm Dorian is now looking to be a level 3 hurricane, perhaps even a level 4, when it hits Florida.

That is a dangerous storm.

Experience shows that Florida's highways quickly fill up (and sometimes fuel runs dry) once everyone decides to bail out.

If anyone is thinking of leaving, better to leave soon.

I'm in Florida but can't leave per employment obligations. Otherwise, I'd be headed north.
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Old 08-29-2019, 11:12 AM   #37
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Good points. Also, Dorian is forecast to slow down, which gives the storm more time to linger over very warm waters and gain strength.

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Old 08-29-2019, 12:08 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
NDBC Station 41046 -- 335 NM east of San Salvador Island, Bahamas -- should be just east of Dorian's projected path in a couple of days:
. . .
The charts in Post #22 are starting to show some wind and wave height action. [click on orange arrow in quote to see the full post]

Peter
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Old 08-29-2019, 02:41 PM   #39
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Gonna repeat that entire Post #22 here, with other stuff added, because it looks as if the eye of Dorian will pass almost directly overhead in the next 12-18 hours, and the wind/pressure/wave height charts should reflect that IMO.

Note winds picking up, green air pressure line starting to drop, and the wave heights going up. By noon tomorrow [Friday] these plots may be "off the charts" IMO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OTRA15 View Post
NDBC Station 41046 -- 335 NM east of San Salvador Island, Bahamas -- should be just east of Dorian's projected path in a couple of days:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=41046

This combined chart should update in real time, and reveal Dorian's passage, by Friday morning I would guess:





The Wave Heights at 41046 should start to pick up during the day on Thursday, as Dorian's swells project northward, faster than the eye's actual forward motion:



. . .

Here is the wind direction:





. . . followed by the wind speed at 20 meters [about 65' above sea level] -- if Dorian's eye wall passes over this buoy, this chart in particular will show 3-ish profound spikes up/down/up IMO:




That's enough for now, I guess. Sorry for the length of this post -- on a computer screen it is compelling to watch!

Time will tell -- stay safe.

Peter
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Old 08-29-2019, 03:21 PM   #40
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The spaghetti models show a turn to the north at some point.
When is the issue.
I played that game with Irma until I had to scram.
Here on the Florida west coast, I stopped by the store and it was a zoo. People have stripped the shelves bare of water.
I have all my errands done and now it's wait and see.
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