[toastie]

July-September GDP decline is -0.5, if we let GM fail that number would go to -4.0 with unemployment of over 14 million people.

The U.S. economy contracted more than initially expected in the third quarter, as consumers and businesses braced for a protracted, severe downturn. Consumers' gloom and thrift reverberated through the housing market, where home prices posted double-digit declines during the third quarter.

Gross domestic product, which measures the nation's output, declined at a 0.5% annual rate in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. "The U.S. recession is set to get worse -- a lot worse -- in the next couple of quarters," IHS Global Insight chief economist Nariman Behravesh wrote in a note to clients. "Bottom line: We are in the early stages of one of the worst recessions in the post-war period, even factoring in a massive stimulus program."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122761923606056345.html?mod=googlenews_wsj