[71_safari]

>>[QUOTE=Janet's Husband]A few observations:

1.) The price of fuel is increaseing.
2.) Fuel will probably not ever drop to pre-04 levels again.
3.) The transportation costs of of goods has not been completely passed on to the consumers as of yet, it will probably hit in the next 6 to 12 months.
4.) It is going to become very expensive to continue the Airstream dream, due to increased costs.
5.) Big trailers are more expensive to tow than small trailers.
6.) It is likely that a lot of people will be priced out of RV'ing.

Looks to me that if I want to keep going as long as possible, I will have to keep my smaller trailer, look for a more economical tow vehicle, and pick and chose where I can go.

Any thoughts on this?<<


Yes Gary, I think you are right on. World oil demand is very close to supply due to developing countries and growth in US demand (up 15% since 1990). Prices will continue to trend up and as they do, the market will begin to work it's magic, as long as no one messes with it. Behavior, in terms of vehicle choice and driving decisions, is already beginning to change, and will continue to do so. I expect over the next few years we will see significant improvements in fuel efficiency in vehicles and manufacturing, once people realize prices are not going back down. Energy intensity per $ of GDP will drop again like it did after the first oil shocks in the 70's and 80's. Which is a good thing IMHO. The technology exists, there just hasn't been much demand until now because of our relatively low cost of oil.

As far as the Airstream life goes - isn't great that we have such efficient towables? I do think we will see much more efficient tow vehicles introduced over the next few years, perhaps SUV's and lighter duty pickups with 2.8 to 4 liter diesels, and 5-6 spd autos which would be great for towing trailers in, say, the 5000 lb range, with good efficiency. Just look at the mileage the new Dodge/Benz van gets with the small turbodiesel - over 20mpg loaded. And there seems to be a lot of growth in the ultralight and hybrid trailer markets, as well as lighter, collapsible trailers like the Chalet, Hi-Lo, etc, that reduce wind drag. Might not want to fulltime in one but they're great for weekend use. It might help to look at what they do in Europe and other places with high fuel costs - usually you see smaller, but high quality.

As I see it, you're pretty much on target.

-john